Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Western KY @ Indiana WKU @ IU

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

0-3  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 4:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

3-0  |  Home

38
Key Game
Elijah Rumph
KEY GAME

Elijah Rumph

#35 | Linebacker
@
Billy Gowers
KEY GAME

Billy Gowers

#19 | Punter
Player
Elijah Rumph None-None
Billy Gowers None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WESTERN KY
3%
📊
INDIANA
97%
WESTERN KY --
INDIANA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.0
Projected
Book Total
59.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 59.5 54%
Under 59.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+35.0
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
+44.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Western Kentucky)
Western KYWKU (+44.5) 0 IndianaIU (-44.5)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+44.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Western KY Cover

99.4%

Indiana Cover

0.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WKU +35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)

WKU By 1-6 points

0.4%

WKU By 7-13 points

0.1%

IU By 1-6 points

1.4%

IU By 7-13 points

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
13.5
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 7.50
48.5
INDIANA
Book Implied: 52
Simulated Score
23
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 7.50
34
INDIANA
Book Implied: 52
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Indiana Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Indiana Win
86% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Western KY (+44.5) Win
Proj Spread: +35.0
B
Sim Western KY (+44.5) Win
Proj Spread: +11.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o59.5 Loss
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Sim u59.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 WKU @ IU 0 - 38
Sep 17, 2022 WKU @ IU 30 - 33
Sep 25, 2021 IU @ WKU 33 - 31
Sep 19, 2015 WKU @ IU 35 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.3% more
Indiana: 202.2 vs Western Kentucky: 140.2
Total Yards (L5) +29.5% more
Indiana: 426.1 vs Western Kentucky: 329.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Indiana: 0.6 vs Western Kentucky: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +84.7% more
Western Kentucky: 2.7 vs Indiana: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WKU Score 13.5 0
IU Score 48.5 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 19.6 24.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 202.2 / 140.2 233.0 / 66.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.2 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 426.1 / 329.0 513.0 / 186.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 2.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +44 / -44 → +44.5 / -44.5 ↑
62%TICKETS38%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 59.5 → 59.5
61%TICKETS39%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
0-3-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -41.0 ATS +/-: -13.2
IU Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 43.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU Advantage
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -41.0 ATS +/-: -13.2
IU
0-3-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 43.0 ATS +/-: -4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +8.5
IU
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -7.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
WKU
IU
WKU
ML
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
ATS
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
TTL
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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