Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Duquesne @ Washington St DUQ @ WSU

DUQUESNE

DUQUESNEDUQ

0-3  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 3:30 PM ET
Martin Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON STATE

WASHINGTON STWSU

1-2  |  Home

48
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Justin Willis

#96 | Punter
@
Max Dean
KEY GAME

Max Dean

#32 | Punter
Player
Justin Willis None-None
Max Dean None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DUQUESNE
3%
📊
WASHINGTON ST
97%
DUQUESNE --
WASHINGTON ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.5
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 (Over)
Over 51.5 75%
Under 51.5 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+35.5
DUQUESNE
Book Spread
+38.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Duquesne)
DuquesneDUQ (+38.5) 0 Washington StWSU (-38.5)
Duquesne Dukes (+38.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Duquesne Cover

99.4%

Washington St Cover

0.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DUQ +35.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUQ)

DUQ By 1-6 points

0.4%

DUQ By 7-13 points

0.1%

WSU By 1-6 points

1.3%

WSU By 7-13 points

3.9%

AI Model Projected Score
13.5
DUQUESNE
Book Implied: 6.50
49
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Implied: 45
Simulated Score
12
DUQUESNE
Book Implied: 6.50
35
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Implied: 45
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Washington St Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Washington St Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Duquesne (+38.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +35.5
B
Sim Duquesne (+38.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +23.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o51.5 Win
Proj Total: 62.5
A
Sim u51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 DUQ @ WSU 7 - 48
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +69.1% more
Washington State: 17.6 vs Duquesne: 10.4
Total Yards (L5) +59.6% more
Washington State: 300.2 vs Duquesne: 188.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.8% more
Washington State: 138.9 vs Duquesne: 91.5
Turnovers (L5) +9.3% more
Duquesne: 2.1 vs Washington State: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUQ Score 13.5 7
WSU Score 49.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 10.4 26.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 138.9 / 91.5 316.0 / 105.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.67 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 300.2 / 188.1 512.0 / 180.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 2.1 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +37.5 / -37.5 → +38.5 / -38.5 ↑
38%TICKETS62%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 51.5 ↓
76%TICKETS24%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUQ
--
WSU Advantage
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -5.2 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUQ
--
WSU Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -5.2 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DUQ
--
WSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSU
DUQ
WSU
DUQ
ML
67% 4-2
100% 2-0
100% 6-0
100% 2-0
ATS
50% 3-3
50% 1-1
67% 4-2
50% 1-1
TTL
33% 2-4
100% 2-0
33% 2-4
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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