Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wagner @ California WAG @ CAL

WAGNER

WAGNERWAG

1-3  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 3:30 PM ET
California Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

2-1  |  Home

49
Key Game
Ryan Liszner
KEY GAME

Ryan Liszner

#20 | Place kicker
@
Chase Meyer
KEY GAME

Chase Meyer

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Ryan Liszner None-None
Chase Meyer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WAGNER
3%
📊
CALIFORNIA
97%
WAGNER --
CALIFORNIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
63.0
Projected
Book Total
65.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 65.0 46%
Under 65.0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+35.4
WAGNER
Book Spread
+57.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.1 points (Wagner)
WagnerWAG (+57.5) 0 CaliforniaCAL (-57.5)
Wagner Seahawks (+57.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wagner Cover

99.4%

California Cover

0.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WAG +35.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WAG)

WAG By 1-6 points

0.4%

WAG By 7-13 points

0.1%

CAL By 1-6 points

1.3%

CAL By 7-13 points

3.9%

AI Model Projected Score
13.8
WAGNER
Book Implied: 3.80
49.2
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 61.20
Simulated Score
12
WAGNER
Book Implied: 3.80
36
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 61.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI California Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim California Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Wagner (+57.5) Win
Proj Spread: +35.4
A
Sim Wagner (+57.5) Win
Proj Spread: +24.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u65.0 Win
Proj Total: 63.0
D
Sim u65.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 WAG @ CAL 7 - 49
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +141.0% more
California: 20.9 vs Wagner: 8.7
Total Yards (L5) +118.3% more
California: 355.8 vs Wagner: 163.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
California: 0.4 vs Wagner: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.5% more
California: 90.7 vs Wagner: 78.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WAG Score 13.8 7
CAL Score 49.2 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 8.7 28.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 90.7 / 78.5 134.0 / 112.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 355.8 / 163.0 626.0 / 198.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.3 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +58.5 / -58.5 → +57.5 / -57.5 ↓
63%TICKETS37%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: 65.5 → 65 ↓
48%TICKETS52%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAG
--
CAL Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAG
--
CAL Advantage
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WAG
--
CAL
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
WAG
CAL
WAG
ML
33% 2-4
67% 2-1
67% 4-2
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 2-4
33% 1-2
67% 4-2
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 2-4
67% 2-1
67% 4-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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