Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami OH @ Cincinnati M-OH @ CIN

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

1-2  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 3:30 PM ET
TQL Stadium
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

CINCINNATICIN

3-0  |  Home

35
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Vito McConnell

#37 | Linebacker
@
Max Fletcher
KEY GAME

Max Fletcher

#31 | Punter
Player
Vito McConnell None-None
Max Fletcher None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI OH
9%
📊
CINCINNATI
91%
▲ Edge: +4.60% (CIN)
MIAMI OH 18% Book Odds: +470
CINCINNATI 87% Book Odds: -649
Book Implied: 17.50% / 86.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.5
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 (Over)
Over 50.5 64%
Under 50.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
-14.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Cincinnati)
Miami OHM-OH (+14.5) 0 CincinnatiCIN (-14.5)
Cincinnati Bearcats (-14.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami OH Cover

4.0%

Cincinnati Cover

96.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CIN -24.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

M-OH By 1-6 points

2.4%

M-OH By 7-13 points

1.0%

CIN By 1-6 points

5.6%

CIN By 7-13 points

11.7%

AI Model Projected Score
16
MIAMI (OH)
Book Implied: 18
40.5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 32.50
Simulated Score
23
MIAMI (OH)
Book Implied: 18
34
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 32.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cincinnati Win
91% Win Prob
B
Sim Cincinnati Win
86% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cincinnati (-14.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.5
B
Sim Miami OH (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: +11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.5
B
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 M-OH @ CIN 31 - 35
Sep 14, 2024 CIN @ M-OH 27 - 16
Sep 16, 2023 M-OH @ CIN 31 - 24
Sep 17, 2022 CIN @ M-OH 38 - 17
Sep 4, 2021 M-OH @ CIN 14 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +102.3% more
Cincinnati: 267.6 vs Miami (OH): 132.3
Total Yards (L5) +40.7% more
Cincinnati: 476.5 vs Miami (OH): 338.6
First Downs (L5) +20.1% more
Cincinnati: 22.5 vs Miami (OH): 18.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.5 vs Miami (OH): 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
M-OH Score 16.0 31
CIN Score 40.5 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.5 / 18.8 25.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 267.6 / 132.3 137.0 / 76.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 476.5 / 338.6 446.0 / 410.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +440 / -645 → +470 / -649
1%TICKETS99%
0%MONEY100%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14 / -14 → +14.5 / -14.5 ↑
8%TICKETS92%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 50.5
68%TICKETS32%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
M-OH
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -3.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
CIN Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
M-OH
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
CIN
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
M-OH
3-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +15.2
CIN
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +7.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
M-OH
CIN
M-OH
ML
100% 2-0
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
ATS
50% 1-1
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
TTL
50% 1-1
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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