Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Utah State @ Utah USU @ UTAH

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

0-3  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 3:30 PM ET
Rice-Eccles Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH

UTAHUTAH

3-0  |  Home

33
Key Game
Hyrum Hatch
KEY GAME

Hyrum Hatch

#55 | Long Snapper
@
Dillon Curtis
KEY GAME

Dillon Curtis

#17 | Place kicker
Player
Hyrum Hatch None-None
Dillon Curtis None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTAH STATE
6%
📊
UTAH
94%
UTAH STATE 6% Book Odds: +1700
UTAH 98% Book Odds: -4545
Book Implied: 5.60% / 97.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
64.4
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.9 (Over)
Over 55.5 69%
Under 55.5 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
UTAH
Book Spread
-25.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Utah)
Utah StateUSU (+25.5) 0 UtahUTAH (-25.5)
Utah Utes (-25.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utah State Cover

1.6%

Utah Cover

98.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTAH -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

USU By 1-6 points

1.0%

USU By 7-13 points

0.4%

UTAH By 1-6 points

2.9%

UTAH By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
17.2
UTAH STATE
Book Implied: 15
47.2
UTAH
Book Implied: 40.50
Simulated Score
25
UTAH STATE
Book Implied: 15
35
UTAH
Book Implied: 40.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Utah Win
94% Win Prob
A
Sim Utah Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Utah (-25.5) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
C
Sim Utah State (+25.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 64.4
A
Sim o55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 USU @ UTAH 0 - 33
Sep 14, 2024 UTAH @ USU 38 - 21
Sep 11, 2015 USU @ UTAH 14 - 24
Aug 29, 2013 USU @ UTAH 26 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +94.6% more
Utah: 249.7 vs Utah State: 128.3
Total Yards (L5) +48.4% more
Utah: 509.5 vs Utah State: 343.3
First Downs (L5) +34.0% more
Utah: 26.5 vs Utah State: 19.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Utah: 0.6 vs Utah State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 17.2 0
UTAH Score 47.2 33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.5 / 19.8 23.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 249.7 / 128.3 194.0 / 58.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.59 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 509.5 / 343.3 480.0 / 188.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 2.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2000 / -6667 → +1700 / -4545 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +28 / -28 → +25.5 / -25.5 ↓
42%TICKETS58%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57 → 55.5 ↓
55%TICKETS45%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: +2.1
UTAH Advantage
8-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 23.0 ATS +/-: +6.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: +2.1
UTAH Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 23.0 ATS +/-: +6.9
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
1-7-0
O: 12.5% / U: 87.5% Total +/-: -15.3
UTAH
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
USU
UTAH
USU
ML
100% 8-0
62% 5-3
88% 7-1
88% 7-1
ATS
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
25% 2-6
62% 5-3
TTL
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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