Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / SMU @ Louisville SMU @ LOU

SMU

SMUSMU

2-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 3:30 PM ET
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

2-1  |  Home

41
Key Game
Wade McSparron
KEY GAME

Wade McSparron

#43 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Niall Hayes

#91 | Punter
Player
Wade McSparron None-None
Niall Hayes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SMU
33%
📊
LOUISVILLE
67%
▲ Edge: +8.30% (LOU)
SMU 46% Book Odds: +120
LOUISVILLE 59% Book Odds: -142
Book Implied: 45.50% / 58.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
57.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.5 (Under)
Over 57.5 36%
Under 57.5 64%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.6
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.6 points (Louisville)
SMUSMU (+3) 0 LouisvilleLOU (-3)
Louisville Cardinals (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

SMU Cover

29.4%

Louisville Cover

70.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LOU -7.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

SMU By 1-6 points

12.5%

SMU By 7-13 points

9.1%

LOU By 1-6 points

16.3%

LOU By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
22.2
SMU
Book Implied: 27.20
29.8
LOUISVILLE
Book Implied: 30.20
Simulated Score
29
SMU
Book Implied: 27.20
32
LOUISVILLE
Book Implied: 30.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Louisville Win
67% Win Prob
C
Sim Louisville Win
61% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Louisville (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -7.6
C
Sim SMU (-3) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u57.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Sim o57.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 SMU @ LOU 31 - 41
Nov 22, 2025 LOU @ SMU 6 - 38
Oct 5, 2024 SMU @ LOU 34 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.9% more
Louisville: 206.6 vs SMU: 140.6
Turnovers (L5) +76.4% more
SMU: 1.6 vs Louisville: 0.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
SMU: 0.5 vs Louisville: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +9.5% more
SMU: 524.4 vs Louisville: 474.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMU Score 22.2 31
LOU Score 29.8 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 21.8 22.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 206.6 / 140.6 265.0 / 257.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.3 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 474.8 / 524.4 442.0 / 479.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.6 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112 → +120 / -142 ↑
36%TICKETS64%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +3 / -3 ↑
57%TICKETS43%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 57.5 ↓
57%TICKETS43%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 13.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
LOU
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 17.7 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
1-1-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 13.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
LOU Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 17.7 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +6.5
LOU
3-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +18.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
SMU
LOU
SMU
ML
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
ATS
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
TTL
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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