UTEP
UTEPUTEP
1-2 | Road
17
MICHIGAN
MICHIGANMICH
3-0 | Home
52
Key Game
KEY GAME
Brady Braun
#47 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Cam Brown
#33 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Brady Braun | None-None |
| Cam Brown | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTEP
4%
MICHIGAN
96%
UTEP
--
MICHIGAN
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.6
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +13.1 (Over)
Over 48.5
78%
Under 48.5
22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+34.0
UTEP
Book Spread
+34.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (UTEP)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTEP +34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTEP)
UTEP By 1-6 points
0.5%
UTEP By 7-13 points
0.2%
MICH By 1-6 points
1.6%
MICH By 7-13 points
4.7%
AI Model Projected Score
UTEP
13.8
UTEP
Book Implied: 7
Michigan
47.8
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 41.50
Simulated Score
UTEP
19
UTEP
Book Implied: 7
Michigan
33
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 41.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Michigan
Win
96% Win Prob
A
Sim
Michigan
Win
92% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
UTEP (+34.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: +34.0
D
Sim
UTEP (+34.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: +14.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o48.5
Win
Proj Total: 61.6
A
Sim
o48.5
Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 19, 2026
UTEP @ MICH
17 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+22.2% more
UTEP: 2.0
vs
Michigan: 1.5
Total Yards (L5)
+17.9% more
UTEP: 361.4
vs
Michigan: 296.6
First Downs (L5)
+12.0% more
UTEP: 17.3
vs
Michigan: 15.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTEP Score
13.8
17
MICH Score
47.8
52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
15.2 / 17.3
27.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards
150.9 / 161.0
185.0 / 57.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.3
0.69 / 0.17
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.4
0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards
296.6 / 361.4
431.0 / 150.0
Turnovers
1.5 / 2.0
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +6600 / -20000
→
-- / --
Spread (ATS)
Open: +37 / -37
→
+34.5 / -34.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5
→
48.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTEP
1-7-0
(12.5%)
Margin: -22.4
ATS +/-: -6.9
MICH
Advantage
5-3-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -5.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTEP
1-7-0
(12.5%)
Margin: -22.4
ATS +/-: -6.9
MICH
Advantage
3-5-0
(37.5%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -5.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UTEP
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
MICH
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
UTEP
MICH
UTEP
ML
75%
6-2
100%
8-0
62%
5-3
62%
5-3
ATS
62%
5-3
0%
0-8
88%
7-1
12%
1-7
TTL
25%
2-6
62%
5-3
38%
3-5
50%
4-4
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