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UTEP

UTEPUTEP

1-2  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 3:30 PM ET
Michigan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

MICHIGANMICH

3-0  |  Home

52
Key Game
Brady Braun
KEY GAME

Brady Braun

#47 | Punter
@
Cam Brown
KEY GAME

Cam Brown

#33 | Punter
Player
Brady Braun None-None
Cam Brown None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTEP
4%
📊
MICHIGAN
96%
UTEP --
MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.6
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +13.1 (Over)
Over 48.5 78%
Under 48.5 22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+34.0
UTEP
Book Spread
+34.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (UTEP)
UTEPUTEP (+34.5) 0 MichiganMICH (-34.5)
UTEP Miners (+34.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTEP Cover

99.2%

Michigan Cover

0.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTEP +34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTEP)

UTEP By 1-6 points

0.5%

UTEP By 7-13 points

0.2%

MICH By 1-6 points

1.6%

MICH By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
13.8
UTEP
Book Implied: 7
47.8
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 41.50
Simulated Score
19
UTEP
Book Implied: 7
33
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 41.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Michigan Win
96% Win Prob
A
Sim Michigan Win
92% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UTEP (+34.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +34.0
D
Sim UTEP (+34.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +14.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.6
A
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 UTEP @ MICH 17 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.2% more
UTEP: 2.0 vs Michigan: 1.5
Total Yards (L5) +17.9% more
UTEP: 361.4 vs Michigan: 296.6
First Downs (L5) +12.0% more
UTEP: 17.3 vs Michigan: 15.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTEP Score 13.8 17
MICH Score 47.8 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.2 / 17.3 27.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 150.9 / 161.0 185.0 / 57.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.69 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 296.6 / 361.4 431.0 / 150.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 2.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +6600 / -20000 → -- / --
3%TICKETS97%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +37 / -37 → +34.5 / -34.5 ↓
63%TICKETS37%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 48.5 ↓
82%TICKETS18%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTEP
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -23.7 ATS +/-: -8.0
MICH Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTEP
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -23.7 ATS +/-: -8.0
MICH Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UTEP
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.3
MICH
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
UTEP
MICH
UTEP
ML
60% 3-2
100% 6-0
100% 5-0
67% 4-2
ATS
80% 4-1
0% 0-6
80% 4-1
0% 0-6
TTL
20% 1-4
83% 5-1
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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