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USC

USCUSC

4-0  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 3:30 PM ET
SHI Stadium
View Odds Details →

RUTGERS

RUTGERSRUTG

0-3  |  Home

35
Key Game
Lachlan Carrigan
KEY GAME

Lachlan Carrigan

#35 | Punter
@
Ja'shon Benjamin
KEY GAME

Ja'shon Benjamin

#20 | Running Back
Player
Lachlan Carrigan None-None
Ja'shon Benjamin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
USC
79%
📊
RUTGERS
21%
▲ Edge: +12.60% (RUTG)
USC 95% Book Odds: -2083
RUTGERS 8% Book Odds: +1100
Book Implied: 95.40% / 8.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.6
Projected
Book Total
58.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.9 (Under)
Over 58.5 47%
Under 58.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+14.0
RUTGERS
Book Spread
+21
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Rutgers)
USCUSC (-21) 0 RutgersRUTG (+21)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+21) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

USC Cover

15.9%

Rutgers Cover

84.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around RUTG +14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RUTG)

USC By 1-6 points

12.9%

USC By 7-13 points

19.0%

RUTG By 1-6 points

7.9%

RUTG By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
34.8
USC
Book Implied: 39.80
20.8
RUTGERS
Book Implied: 18.80
Simulated Score
32
USC
Book Implied: 39.80
31
RUTGERS
Book Implied: 18.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI USC Win
79% Win Prob
A
Sim USC Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rutgers (+21) Win
Proj Spread: +14.0
A
Sim Rutgers (+21) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.6
D
Sim o58.5 Win
Proj Total: 63.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 USC @ RUTG 42 - 35
Oct 25, 2024 RUTG @ USC 20 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +26.0% more
USC: 0.6 vs Rutgers: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.5% more
USC: 158.0 vs Rutgers: 125.6
Total Yards (L5) +18.9% more
USC: 470.9 vs Rutgers: 381.8
First Downs (L5) +18.8% more
USC: 24.5 vs Rutgers: 19.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USC Score 34.8 42
RUTG Score 20.8 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 24.5 27.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 125.6 / 158.0 168.0 / 184.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.55 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 381.8 / 470.9 460.0 / 461.0
Turnovers 2.7 / 1.3 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -3226 / +1400 → -2083 / +1100 ↑
98%TICKETS2%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -24.5 / +24.5 → -21 / +21 ↑
47%TICKETS53%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5 → 58.5 ↑
46%TICKETS54%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: -5.3
RUTG
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: -5.3
RUTG Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +3.9
RUTG
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RUTG
USC
RUTG
USC
ML
60% 3-2
100% 7-0
40% 2-3
86% 6-1
ATS
20% 1-4
71% 5-2
40% 2-3
57% 4-3
TTL
60% 3-2
57% 4-3
40% 2-3
43% 3-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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