USC
USCUSC
4-0 | Road
42
RUTGERS
RUTGERSRUTG
0-3 | Home
35
Key Game
KEY GAME
Lachlan Carrigan
#35 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Ja'shon Benjamin
#20 | Running Back| Player | |
|---|---|
| Lachlan Carrigan | None-None |
| Ja'shon Benjamin | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
USC
79%
RUTGERS
21%
▲ Edge: +12.60% (RUTG)
USC
95%
Book Odds: -2083
RUTGERS
8%
Book Odds: +1100
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.6
Projected
Book Total
58.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +2.9 (Under)
Over 58.5
47%
Under 58.5
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+14.0
RUTGERS
Book Spread
+21
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Rutgers)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around RUTG +14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RUTG)
USC By 1-6 points
12.9%
USC By 7-13 points
19.0%
RUTG By 1-6 points
7.9%
RUTG By 7-13 points
4.7%
AI Model Projected Score
USC
34.8
USC
Book Implied: 39.80
Rutgers
20.8
RUTGERS
Book Implied: 18.80
Simulated Score
USC
32
USC
Book Implied: 39.80
Rutgers
31
RUTGERS
Book Implied: 18.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
USC
Win
79% Win Prob
A
Sim
USC
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rutgers (+21)
Win
Proj Spread: +14.0
A
Sim
Rutgers (+21)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u58.5
Loss
Proj Total: 55.6
D
Sim
o58.5
Win
Proj Total: 63.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 19, 2026
USC @ RUTG
42 - 35
Oct 25, 2024
RUTG @ USC
20 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+26.0% more
USC: 0.6
vs
Rutgers: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5)
+20.5% more
USC: 158.0
vs
Rutgers: 125.6
Total Yards (L5)
+18.9% more
USC: 470.9
vs
Rutgers: 381.8
First Downs (L5)
+18.8% more
USC: 24.5
vs
Rutgers: 19.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USC Score
34.8
42
RUTG Score
20.8
35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.9 / 24.5
27.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards
125.6 / 158.0
168.0 / 184.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.6
0.55 / 0.5
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards
381.8 / 470.9
460.0 / 461.0
Turnovers
2.7 / 1.3
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -3226 / +1400
→
-2083 / +1100
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -24.5 / +24.5
→
-21 / +21
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5
→
58.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC
Advantage
7-2-0
(77.8%)
Margin: 8.2
ATS +/-: -4.2
RUTG
2-6-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: -3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
3-6-0
(33.3%)
Margin: 8.2
ATS +/-: -4.2
RUTG
Advantage
4-4-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: -3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: +0.6
RUTG
6-2-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0%
Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RUTG
USC
RUTG
USC
ML
62%
5-3
78%
7-2
50%
4-4
67%
6-3
ATS
38%
3-5
56%
5-4
50%
4-4
56%
5-4
TTL
62%
5-3
44%
4-5
62%
5-3
33%
3-6
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