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FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

1-2  |  Road

36
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 3:30 PM ET
Bryant-Denny Stadium
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

3-0  |  Home

50
Key Game
Daniel Hughes
KEY GAME

Daniel Hughes

#36 | Punter
@
Alex Asparuhov
KEY GAME

Alex Asparuhov

#32 | Punter
Player
Daniel Hughes None-None
Alex Asparuhov None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FLORIDA ST
25%
📊
ALABAMA
75%
▲ Edge: +13.90% (FSU)
FLORIDA ST 11% Book Odds: +800
ALABAMA 93% Book Odds: -1351
Book Implied: 11.10% / 93.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 (Over)
Over 49.5 63%
Under 49.5 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.4
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
+18.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.1 points (Florida State)
Florida StFSU (+18.5) 0 AlabamaALA (-18.5)
Florida State Seminoles (+18.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Florida St Cover

79.2%

Alabama Cover

20.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FSU +11.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

FSU By 1-6 points

9.7%

FSU By 7-13 points

6.3%

ALA By 1-6 points

14.5%

ALA By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
21.8
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 15.50
33.2
ALABAMA
Book Implied: 34
Simulated Score
31
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 15.50
29
ALABAMA
Book Implied: 34
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Alabama Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim Florida St Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Florida St (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: +11.4
A
Sim Florida St (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Sim o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 FSU @ ALA 36 - 50
Aug 30, 2025 ALA @ FSU 17 - 31
Sep 2, 2017 FSU @ ALA 7 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.9% more
Florida State: 183.9 vs Alabama: 145.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FSU Score 21.8 36
ALA Score 33.2 50
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 20.6 26.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 145.4 / 183.9 247.0 / 94.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 368.6 / 380.4 567.0 / 471.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.7 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +625 / -952 → +800 / -1351 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +17.5 / -17.5 → +18.5 / -18.5 ↑
60%TICKETS40%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 49.5 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.7 ATS +/-: -2.7
ALA Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 23.5 ATS +/-: +10.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU
2-3-1 (40.0%)
Margin: 5.7 ATS +/-: -2.7
ALA Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 23.5 ATS +/-: +10.8
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: +1.2
ALA
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +11.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
FSU
ALA
FSU
ML
100% 6-0
83% 5-1
17% 1-5
83% 5-1
ATS
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
17% 1-5
100% 6-0
TTL
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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