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KENTUCKY

KENTUCKYUK

2-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 3:30 PM ET
Kyle Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS A&M

TEXAS A&MTA&M

2-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
Thomas O'Hara
KEY GAME

Thomas O'Hara

#48 | Punter
@
David Olano
KEY GAME

David Olano

#24 | Place kicker
Player
Thomas O'Hara None-None
David Olano None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENTUCKY
12%
📊
TEXAS A&M
88%
KENTUCKY 15% Book Odds: +575
TEXAS A&M 89% Book Odds: -847
Book Implied: 14.80% / 89.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.4
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.9 (Over)
Over 48.5 64%
Under 48.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
-16.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Texas A&M)
KentuckyUK (+16.5) 0 Texas A&MTA&M (-16.5)
Texas A&M Aggies (-16.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kentucky Cover

6.7%

Texas A&M Cover

93.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TA&M -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TA&M)

UK By 1-6 points

3.8%

UK By 7-13 points

1.8%

TA&M By 1-6 points

7.9%

TA&M By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
17.2
KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 16
38.2
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 32.50
Simulated Score
19
KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 16
36
TEXAS A&M
Book Implied: 32.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Texas A&M Loss
88% Win Prob
B
Sim Texas A&M Loss
95% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas A&M (-16.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim Texas A&M (-16.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.4
B
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 UK @ TA&M 31 - 21
Oct 6, 2018 UK @ TA&M 14 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.3% more
Texas A&M: 150.5 vs Kentucky: 109.6
First Downs (L5) +23.6% more
Texas A&M: 21.9 vs Kentucky: 17.7
Total Yards (L5) +19.2% more
Texas A&M: 372.1 vs Kentucky: 312.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Texas A&M: 0.4 vs Kentucky: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UK Score 17.2 31
TA&M Score 38.2 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 17.7 23.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 150.5 / 109.6 187.0 / 156.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.53 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 372.1 / 312.0 423.0 / 408.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.9 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +575 / -847 → +575 / -847
2%TICKETS98%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +15.5 / -15.5 → +16.5 / -16.5 ↑
12%TICKETS88%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 48.5
77%TICKETS23%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UK
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: +6.0
TA&M
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 22.7 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UK
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: +6.0
TA&M
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 22.7 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UK
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.8
TA&M
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TA&M
UK
TA&M
UK
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
0% 0-3
0% 0-3
TTL
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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