Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Temple @ Toledo TEM @ TOL

TEMPLE

TEMPLETEM

1-2  |  Road

48
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 3:00 PM ET
Glass Bowl
View Odds Details →

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

2-1  |  Home

49
Key Game
Dante Atton
KEY GAME

Dante Atton

#7 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Markus Meincke

#47 | Punter
Player
Dante Atton None-None
Markus Meincke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEMPLE
21%
📊
TOLEDO
79%
▲ Edge: +11.90% (TOL)
TEMPLE 37% Book Odds: +170
TOLEDO 67% Book Odds: -205
Book Implied: 37% / 67.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.6
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.1 (Over)
Over 48.5 61%
Under 48.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
-4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Toledo)
TempleTEM (+4.5) 0 ToledoTOL (-4.5)
Toledo Rockets (-4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Temple Cover

15.9%

Toledo Cover

84.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TOL -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

TEM By 1-6 points

7.9%

TEM By 7-13 points

4.7%

TOL By 1-6 points

12.9%

TOL By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
19.8
TEMPLE
Book Implied: 22
33.8
TOLEDO
Book Implied: 26.50
Simulated Score
16
TEMPLE
Book Implied: 22
34
TOLEDO
Book Implied: 26.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Toledo Win
79% Win Prob
C
Sim Toledo Win
96% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Toledo (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Sim Toledo (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.6
C
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 TEM @ TOL 48 - 49
Dec 22, 2015 TEM @ TOL 17 - 32
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +58.0% more
Toledo: 1.5 vs Temple: 0.9
Total Yards (L5) +36.4% more
Toledo: 418.4 vs Temple: 306.8
First Downs (L5) +24.0% more
Toledo: 20.2 vs Temple: 16.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.3% more
Toledo: 178.8 vs Temple: 162.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEM Score 19.8 48
TOL Score 33.8 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 16.3 27.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 178.8 / 162.1 107.0 / 261.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.62 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 418.4 / 306.8 536.0 / 425.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +173 / -208 → +170 / -205
3%TICKETS97%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +5 / -5 → +4.5 / -4.5 ↓
18%TICKETS82%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51 → 48.5 ↓
79%TICKETS21%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEM
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: +6.5
TOL Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 14.7 ATS +/-: +4.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEM Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: +6.5
TOL
1-1-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 14.7 ATS +/-: +4.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TEM
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +11.8
TOL
3-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +23.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
TEM
TOL
TEM
ML
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
ATS
0% 0-2-1
33% 1-2
0% 0-2-1
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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