Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / S Illinois @ Illinois SIU @ ILL

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

S ILLINOISSIU

2-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 2:00 PM ET
Gies Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS

ILLINOISILL

2-1  |  Home

48
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Elijah Gorman

#92 | Place kicker
@
Lars Rau
KEY GAME

Lars Rau

#81 | Punter
Player
Elijah Gorman None-None
Lars Rau None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
S ILLINOIS
3%
📊
ILLINOIS
97%
S ILLINOIS --
ILLINOIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
67.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +11.5 (Over)
Over 55.5 76%
Under 55.5 24%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
-34.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Illinois)
S IllinoisSIU (+34.5) 0 IllinoisILL (-34.5)
Illinois Fighting Illini (-34.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

S Illinois Cover

0.4%

Illinois Cover

99.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ILL -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

SIU By 1-6 points

0.3%

SIU By 7-13 points

0.1%

ILL By 1-6 points

1.0%

ILL By 7-13 points

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
15
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 10.50
52
ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 45
Simulated Score
19
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 10.50
29
ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 45
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Illinois Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Illinois Win
84% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Illinois (-34.5) Win
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim S Illinois (+34.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 67.0
A
Sim u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 SIU @ ILL 10 - 48
Aug 31, 2013 SIU @ ILL 34 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.5% more
Illinois: 128.4 vs Southern Illinois: 107.4
Total Yards (L5) +16.9% more
Illinois: 350.0 vs Southern Illinois: 299.5
First Downs (L5) +13.4% more
Illinois: 19.9 vs Southern Illinois: 17.5
Turnovers (L5) +14.0% more
Southern Illinois: 0.7 vs Illinois: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SIU Score 15.0 10
ILL Score 52.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 17.5 21.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 128.4 / 107.4 198.0 / 29.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 350.0 / 299.5 503.0 / 257.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +41.5 / -41.5 → +34.5 / -34.5 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 55.5 ↑
60%TICKETS40%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIU
--
ILL Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 17.7 ATS +/-: -4.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIU
--
ILL Advantage
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 17.7 ATS +/-: -4.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SIU
--
ILL
3-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +6.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
SIU
ILL
SIU
ML
67% 2-1
100% 1-0
67% 2-1
100% 1-0
ATS
33% 1-2
100% 1-0
67% 2-1
0% 0-1
TTL
100% 3-0
100% 1-0
33% 1-2
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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