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NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

1-2  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 12:45 PM ET
FirstBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

3-0  |  Home

35
Key Game
Jonathan Paylor
KEY GAME

Jonathan Paylor

#14 | Running Back
@
Tyler Ebel
KEY GAME

Tyler Ebel

#37 | Punter
Player
Jonathan Paylor None-None
Tyler Ebel None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NC STATE
19%
📊
VANDERBILT
81%
▲ Edge: +20% (VAN)
NC STATE 44% Book Odds: +130
VANDERBILT 61% Book Odds: -155
Book Implied: 43.50% / 60.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 50.5 52%
Under 50.5 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Vanderbilt)
NC StateNCSU (+3) 0 VanderbiltVAN (-3)
Vanderbilt Commodores (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

NC State Cover

14.2%

Vanderbilt Cover

85.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around VAN -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

NCSU By 1-6 points

7.2%

NCSU By 7-13 points

4.1%

VAN By 1-6 points

12.2%

VAN By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
18
NC STATE
Book Implied: 23.80
33
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 26.80
Simulated Score
21
NC STATE
Book Implied: 23.80
38
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 26.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Vanderbilt Win
81% Win Prob
A
Sim Vanderbilt Win
95% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Vanderbilt (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
A
Sim Vanderbilt (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 NCSU @ VAN 31 - 35
Dec 26, 2016 NCSU @ VAN 41 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +11.0% more
Vanderbilt: 0.7 vs NC State: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.6% more
NC State: 233.7 vs Vanderbilt: 157.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
NC State: 0.6 vs Vanderbilt: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +10.6% more
NC State: 475.9 vs Vanderbilt: 425.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score 18.0 31
VAN Score 33.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 23.4 20.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 157.5 / 233.7 132.0 / 166.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.6 0.42 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 425.3 / 475.9 409.0 / 446.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 0.6 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +159 / -191 → +130 / -155 ↓
11%TICKETS89%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +3 / -3 ↓
40%TICKETS60%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 50.5 ↓
81%TICKETS19%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
VAN
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -6.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
VAN Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -6.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +7.0
VAN
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
NCSU
VAN
NCSU
ML
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
ATS
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
TTL
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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