Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / E Michigan @ Wisconsin EMU @ WIS

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

1-3  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 12:30 PM ET
Camp Randall Stadium
View Odds Details →

WISCONSIN

WISCONSINWIS

2-1  |  Home

54
Key Game
Daniel Hull
KEY GAME

Daniel Hull

#39 | Punter
@
Gavin Lahm
KEY GAME

Gavin Lahm

#97 | Place kicker
Player
Daniel Hull None-None
Gavin Lahm None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
E MICHIGAN
8%
📊
WISCONSIN
92%
▲ Edge: +0.40% (EMU)
E MICHIGAN 8% Book Odds: +1200
WISCONSIN 96% Book Odds: -2381
Book Implied: 7.70% / 96%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.5
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 (Over)
Over 44.5 77%
Under 44.5 23%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.5
WISCONSIN
Book Spread
-23.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Wisconsin)
E MichiganEMU (+23.5) 0 WisconsinWIS (-23.5)
Wisconsin Badgers (-23.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

E Michigan Cover

3.4%

Wisconsin Cover

96.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WIS -25.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIS)

EMU By 1-6 points

2.1%

EMU By 7-13 points

0.8%

WIS By 1-6 points

5.0%

WIS By 7-13 points

10.8%

AI Model Projected Score
16
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 10.50
41.5
WISCONSIN
Book Implied: 34
Simulated Score
24
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 10.50
22
WISCONSIN
Book Implied: 34
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wisconsin Win
92% Win Prob
A
Sim E Michigan Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wisconsin (-23.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.5
C
Sim E Michigan (+23.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.5
A
Sim o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 EMU @ WIS 10 - 54
Sep 11, 2021 EMU @ WIS 7 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.2% more
Wisconsin: 146.6 vs Eastern Michigan: 120.0
Turnovers (L5) +30.5% more
Eastern Michigan: 1.6 vs Wisconsin: 1.1
First Downs (L5) +14.7% more
Eastern Michigan: 16.5 vs Wisconsin: 14.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EMU Score 16.0 10
WIS Score 41.5 54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.0 / 16.5 23.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 146.6 / 120.0 117.0 / 62.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.67 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 306.6 / 314.1 479.0 / 216.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.6 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1173 / -2757 → +1200 / -2381 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +24.5 / -24.5 → +23.5 / -23.5 ↓
59%TICKETS41%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46 → 44.5 ↓
86%TICKETS14%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EMU
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
WIS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EMU
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
WIS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
EMU
2-5-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -3.4
WIS
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WIS
EMU
WIS
EMU
ML
80% 4-1
57% 4-3
40% 2-3
43% 3-4
ATS
40% 2-3
57% 4-3
40% 2-3
43% 3-4
TTL
60% 3-2
71% 5-2
80% 4-1
57% 4-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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