Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Texas @ Texas St UNT @ TXST

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

1-2  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 12:00 PM ET
UFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

1-2  |  Home

49
Key Game
Ian Ratliff
KEY GAME

Ian Ratliff

#37 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Tom Flintoff

#92 | Punter
Player
Ian Ratliff None-None
Tom Flintoff None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH TEXAS
57%
📊
TEXAS ST
43%
▲ Edge: +11.60% (UNT)
NORTH TEXAS 46% Book Odds: +120
TEXAS ST 59% Book Odds: -142
Book Implied: 45.50% / 58.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.4
Projected
Book Total
62.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +13.1 (Under)
Over 62.5 24%
Under 62.5 76%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (North Texas)
North TexasUNT (+3) 0 Texas StTXST (-3)
North Texas Mean Green (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Texas Cover

58.5%

Texas St Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNT -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

UNT By 1-6 points

17.0%

UNT By 7-13 points

17.5%

TXST By 1-6 points

15.3%

TXST By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
26.2
NORTH TEXAS
Book Implied: 29.80
23.2
TEXAS STATE
Book Implied: 32.80
Simulated Score
33
NORTH TEXAS
Book Implied: 29.80
34
TEXAS STATE
Book Implied: 32.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI North Texas Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas St Win
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI North Texas (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim North Texas (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u62.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.4
A
Sim o62.5 Win
Proj Total: 67.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 UNT @ TXST 35 - 49
Jan 3, 2025 UNT @ TXST 28 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +86.0% more
Texas State: 2.3 vs North Texas: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.8% more
Texas State: 229.0 vs North Texas: 201.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNT Score 26.2 35
TXST Score 23.2 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.4 / 23.2 30.0 / 34.0
Rushing Yards 229.0 / 201.3 337.0 / 82.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.67
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 444.9 / 475.6 605.0 / 565.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -153 → +120 / -142 ↓
27%TICKETS73%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3 / -3 → +3 / -3
45%TICKETS55%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: 63.5 → 62.5 ↓
48%TICKETS52%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 13.0 ATS +/-: +9.1
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 13.0 ATS +/-: +9.1
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +12.3
TXST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
UNT
TXST
UNT
ML
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
ATS
17% 1-5
33% 2-4
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
TTL
33% 2-4
50% 3-3
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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