Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Akron @ Minnesota AKR @ MINN

AKRON

AKRONAKR

1-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 12:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

2-1  |  Home

41
Key Game
Joseph Castle
KEY GAME

Joseph Castle

#95 | Punter
@
Luke Drzewiecki
KEY GAME

Luke Drzewiecki

#-- | Place kicker
Player
Joseph Castle None-None
Luke Drzewiecki None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AKRON
5%
📊
MINNESOTA
95%
AKRON 7% Book Odds: +1400
MINNESOTA 97% Book Odds: -3226
Book Implied: 6.70% / 97%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.0
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +11.5 (Over)
Over 48.5 74%
Under 48.5 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
-22.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.9 points (Minnesota)
AkronAKR (+22.5) 0 MinnesotaMINN (-22.5)
Minnesota Golden Gophers (-22.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Akron Cover

1.5%

Minnesota Cover

98.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MINN -30.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MINN)

AKR By 1-6 points

0.9%

AKR By 7-13 points

0.3%

MINN By 1-6 points

2.8%

MINN By 7-13 points

7.0%

AI Model Projected Score
14.8
AKRON
Book Implied: 13
45.2
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 35.50
Simulated Score
27
AKRON
Book Implied: 13
30
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 35.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Minnesota Win
95% Win Prob
A
Sim Minnesota Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Minnesota (-22.5) Win
Proj Spread: -30.4
B
Sim Akron (+22.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Sim o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 AKR @ MINN 7 - 41
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +70.2% more
Akron: 1.5 vs Minnesota: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +54.5% more
Akron: 175.5 vs Minnesota: 79.8
First Downs (L5) +25.7% more
Akron: 24.2 vs Minnesota: 18.0
Total Yards (L5) +23.5% more
Akron: 417.7 vs Minnesota: 319.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AKR Score 14.8 7
MINN Score 45.2 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 24.2 20.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 79.8 / 175.5 191.0 / 48.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 319.7 / 417.7 395.0 / 221.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.5 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1431 / -3872 → +1400 / -3226
2%TICKETS98%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +26.5 / -26.5 → +22.5 / -22.5 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49 → 48.5 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AKR
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -12.5 ATS +/-: -4.5
MINN Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AKR
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -12.5 ATS +/-: -4.5
MINN Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
AKR
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.3
MINN
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
AKR
MINN
AKR
ML
33% 2-4
83% 5-1
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
ATS
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
33% 2-4
TTL
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
33% 2-4
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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