Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Carolina @ Clemson UNC @ CLEM

NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINAUNC

2-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
View Odds Details →

CLEMSON

CLEMSONCLEM

2-1  |  Home

28
Key Game
Jaziel Hart
KEY GAME

Jaziel Hart

#30 | Defensive Back
@
Jack Smith
KEY GAME

Jack Smith

#89 | Punter
Player
Jaziel Hart None-None
Jack Smith None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH CAROLINA
25%
📊
CLEMSON
75%
▲ Edge: +15.80% (CLEM)
NORTH CAROLINA 45% Book Odds: +124
CLEMSON 60% Book Odds: -148
Book Implied: 44.60% / 59.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 (Over)
Over 44.5 58%
Under 44.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
CLEMSON
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Clemson)
North CarolinaUNC (+3) 0 ClemsonCLEM (-3)
Clemson Tigers (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Carolina Cover

19.6%

Clemson Cover

80.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CLEM -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLEM)

UNC By 1-6 points

9.3%

UNC By 7-13 points

5.9%

CLEM By 1-6 points

14.2%

CLEM By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
18
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 20.80
30
CLEMSON
Book Implied: 23.80
Simulated Score
19
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Implied: 20.80
29
CLEMSON
Book Implied: 23.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Clemson Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim Clemson Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Clemson (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
A
Sim Clemson (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Sim o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 UNC @ CLEM 20 - 28
Oct 4, 2025 CLEM @ UNC 38 - 10
Nov 18, 2023 UNC @ CLEM 20 - 31
Dec 3, 2022 CLEM @ UNC 39 - 10
Sep 28, 2019 CLEM @ UNC 21 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +60.0% more
Clemson: 1.1 vs North Carolina: 0.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +29.0% more
North Carolina: 0.5 vs Clemson: 0.2
Total Yards (L5) +8.9% more
North Carolina: 333.6 vs Clemson: 304.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNC Score 18.0 20
CLEM Score 30.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.2 / 19.7 20.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 110.2 / 112.7 186.0 / 214.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 304.1 / 333.6 401.0 / 349.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.5 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +151 / -179 → +124 / -148 ↓
18%TICKETS82%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +3 / -3 ↓
54%TICKETS46%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 44.5
89%TICKETS11%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.2
CLEM
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: -6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.2
CLEM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: -6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -5.5
CLEM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLEM
UNC
CLEM
UNC
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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