Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Mercer @ Georgia Tech MER @ GT

MERCER

MERCERMER

2-2  |  Road

11
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 12:00 PM ET
Bobby Dodd Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA TECH

GEORGIA TECHGT

1-2  |  Home

44
Key Game
Senin Seymour
KEY GAME

Senin Seymour

#96 | Punter
@
Alex Bacchetta
KEY GAME

Alex Bacchetta

#47 | Punter
Player
Senin Seymour None-None
Alex Bacchetta None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MERCER
4%
📊
GEORGIA TECH
96%
MERCER --
GEORGIA TECH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
57.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 57.5 44%
Under 57.5 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+34.4
MERCER
Book Spread
+38.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (Mercer)
MercerMER (+38.5) 0 Georgia TechGT (-38.5)
Mercer Bears (+38.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mercer Cover

99.3%

Georgia Tech Cover

0.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MER +34.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MER)

MER By 1-6 points

0.5%

MER By 7-13 points

0.1%

GT By 1-6 points

1.5%

GT By 7-13 points

4.5%

AI Model Projected Score
10.8
MERCER
Book Implied: 9.50
45.2
GEORGIA TECH
Book Implied: 48
Simulated Score
13
MERCER
Book Implied: 9.50
40
GEORGIA TECH
Book Implied: 48
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Georgia Tech Win
96% Win Prob
A
Sim Georgia Tech Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mercer (+38.5) Win
Proj Spread: +34.4
C
Sim Mercer (+38.5) Win
Proj Spread: +27.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u57.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
C
Sim u57.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 MER @ GT 11 - 44
Sep 10, 2016 MER @ GT 10 - 35
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +45.6% more
Georgia Tech: 21.6 vs Mercer: 14.9
Total Yards (L5) +38.1% more
Georgia Tech: 363.0 vs Mercer: 262.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.2% more
Georgia Tech: 119.1 vs Mercer: 88.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Georgia Tech: 0.4 vs Mercer: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MER Score 10.8 11
GT Score 45.2 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.6 / 14.9 20.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 119.1 / 88.1 156.0 / 188.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.18 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.55
Total Yards 363.0 / 262.8 405.0 / 290.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 2.5 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +38.5 / -38.5 → +38.5 / -38.5
50%TICKETS50%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 57.5 ↓
54%TICKETS46%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MER
--
GT Advantage
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.7 ATS +/-: -7.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MER
--
GT
0-3-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 3.7 ATS +/-: -7.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MER
--
GT
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -5.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GT
MER
GT
MER
ML
33% 1-2
100% 2-0
33% 1-2
100% 2-0
ATS
33% 1-2
100% 2-0
67% 2-1
100% 2-0
TTL
33% 1-2
100% 2-0
67% 2-1
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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