Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arizona St @ Kansas ASU @ KU

ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

2-1  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 12:00 PM ET
Wembley Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS

KANSASKU

1-2  |  Home

17
Key Game
Nick McLarty
KEY GAME

Nick McLarty

#35 | Punter
@
Matthew Gill
KEY GAME

Matthew Gill

#99 | Punter
Player
Nick McLarty None-None
Matthew Gill None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA ST
41%
📊
KANSAS
59%
▲ Edge: +23.20% (KU)
ARIZONA ST 69% Book Odds: -218
KANSAS 36% Book Odds: +180
Book Implied: 68.60% / 35.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 51.5 49%
Under 51.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
KANSAS
Book Spread
+5.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Kansas)
Arizona StASU (-5.5) 0 KansasKU (+5.5)
Kansas Jayhawks (+5.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona St Cover

38.8%

Kansas Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KU)

ASU By 1-6 points

14.7%

ASU By 7-13 points

12.1%

KU By 1-6 points

17.0%

KU By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
ARIZONA STATE
Book Implied: 28.50
27.5
KANSAS
Book Implied: 23
Simulated Score
22
ARIZONA STATE
Book Implied: 28.50
41
KANSAS
Book Implied: 23
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kansas Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Kansas Loss
97% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Kansas (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Sim Kansas (+5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 63.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 ASU @ KU 24 - 17
Oct 5, 2024 KU @ ASU 31 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +34.2% more
Arizona State: 2.9 vs Kansas: 1.9
Total Yards (L5) +14.5% more
Arizona State: 460.3 vs Kansas: 393.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 23.5 24
KU Score 27.5 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 21.3 22.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 176.3 / 180.2 179.0 / 133.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.38 / 0.24
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 393.4 / 460.3 414.0 / 228.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 2.9 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -237 / +193 → -218 / +180 ↑
90%TICKETS10%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -6.5 / +6.5 → -5.5 / +5.5 ↑
57%TICKETS43%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 51.5 ↓
71%TICKETS29%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
KU
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: -4.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
KU
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: -4.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +10.2
KU
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KU
ASU
KU
ASU
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
0% 0-3
TTL
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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