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TULANE

TULANETULN

1-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 12:00 PM ET
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

3-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
William Hudlow
KEY GAME

William Hudlow

#34 | Punter
@
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
Player
William Hudlow None-None
Simon McClannan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TULANE
19%
📊
KANSAS ST
81%
▲ Edge: +8.10% (TULN)
TULANE 11% Book Odds: +850
KANSAS ST 94% Book Odds: -1449
Book Implied: 10.50% / 93.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.5
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 (Over)
Over 49.5 59%
Under 49.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+15.5
TULANE
Book Spread
+20.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Tulane)
TulaneTULN (+20.5) 0 Kansas StKSU (-20.5)
Tulane Green Wave (+20.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tulane Cover

86.6%

Kansas St Cover

13.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TULN +15.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TULN)

TULN By 1-6 points

6.9%

TULN By 7-13 points

3.9%

KSU By 1-6 points

11.8%

KSU By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
19
TULANE
Book Implied: 14.50
34.5
KANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 35
Simulated Score
28
TULANE
Book Implied: 14.50
27
KANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 35
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kansas St Win
81% Win Prob
C
Sim Tulane Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tulane (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: +15.5
C
Sim Tulane (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.5
C
Sim o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 TULN @ KSU 20 - 31
Sep 7, 2024 KSU @ TULN 34 - 27
Sep 17, 2022 TULN @ KSU 17 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +80.9% more
Kansas State: 271.0 vs Tulane: 149.8
First Downs (L5) +43.2% more
Kansas State: 23.1 vs Tulane: 16.1
Turnovers (L5) +37.0% more
Kansas State: 1.3 vs Tulane: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +20.2% more
Kansas State: 457.1 vs Tulane: 380.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TULN Score 19.0 20
KSU Score 34.5 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.1 / 16.1 20.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 271.0 / 149.8 201.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 457.1 / 380.2 428.0 / 260.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1000 / -1786 → +850 / -1449 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +20.5 / -20.5 → +20.5 / -20.5
70%TICKETS30%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 49.5
81%TICKETS19%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TULN
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
KSU Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 35.3 ATS +/-: +8.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TULN
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
KSU Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 35.3 ATS +/-: +8.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TULN
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: -8.8
KSU
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
TULN
KSU
TULN
ML
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
ATS
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
TTL
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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