Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Buffalo @ Penn State BUFF @ PSU

BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

1-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 12:00 PM ET
Beaver Stadium
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

3-0  |  Home

55
Key Game
Oliver Hautanen
KEY GAME

Oliver Hautanen

#31 | Place kicker
@
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
Player
Oliver Hautanen None-None
Ryan Barker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUFFALO
6%
📊
PENN STATE
94%
BUFFALO --
PENN STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 (Over)
Over 48.5 68%
Under 48.5 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+29.4
BUFFALO
Book Spread
+39.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.1 points (Buffalo)
BuffaloBUFF (+39.5) 0 Penn StatePSU (-39.5)
Buffalo Bulls (+39.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buffalo Cover

98.2%

Penn State Cover

1.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUFF +29.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUFF)

BUFF By 1-6 points

1.1%

BUFF By 7-13 points

0.4%

PSU By 1-6 points

3.1%

PSU By 7-13 points

7.7%

AI Model Projected Score
13.8
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 4.50
43.2
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 44
Simulated Score
16
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 4.50
39
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 44
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Penn State Win
94% Win Prob
A
Sim Penn State Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Buffalo (+39.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +29.4
A
Sim Buffalo (+39.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +23.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 BUFF @ PSU 13 - 55
Sep 7, 2019 BUFF @ PSU 13 - 45
Sep 12, 2015 BUFF @ PSU 14 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +75.0% more
Penn State: 171.9 vs Buffalo: 98.3
First Downs (L5) +31.7% more
Penn State: 22.1 vs Buffalo: 16.8
Total Yards (L5) +25.1% more
Penn State: 425.2 vs Buffalo: 340.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Penn State: 0.5 vs Buffalo: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUFF Score 13.8 13
PSU Score 43.2 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.1 / 16.8 25.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 171.9 / 98.3 304.0 / 113.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.2 / 0.07
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 425.2 / 340.0 573.0 / 173.0
Turnovers 0.1 / 2.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +39.5 / -39.5 → +39.5 / -39.5
67%TICKETS33%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 48.5
86%TICKETS14%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUFF Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: +1.2
PSU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.4 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUFF Advantage
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: +1.2
PSU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.4 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BUFF
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +2.8
PSU
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
BUFF
PSU
BUFF
ML
75% 6-2
78% 7-2
62% 5-3
78% 7-2
ATS
50% 4-4
56% 5-4
25% 2-6
56% 5-4
TTL
75% 6-2
56% 5-4
50% 4-4
67% 6-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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