Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Buffalo @ Penn State BUFF @ PSU

BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

1-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 12:00 PM ET
Beaver Stadium
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

3-0  |  Home

55
Key Game
Oliver Hautanen
KEY GAME

Oliver Hautanen

#31 | Place kicker
@
Matthew Parker
KEY GAME

Matthew Parker

#98 | Place kicker
Player
Oliver Hautanen None-None
Matthew Parker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUFFALO
6%
📊
PENN STATE
94%
BUFFALO --
PENN STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 (Over)
Over 48.5 68%
Under 48.5 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+29.4
BUFFALO
Book Spread
+39.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.1 points (Buffalo)
BuffaloBUFF (+39.5) 0 Penn StatePSU (-39.5)
Buffalo Bulls (+39.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buffalo Cover

98.2%

Penn State Cover

1.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUFF +29.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUFF)

BUFF By 1-6 points

1.1%

BUFF By 7-13 points

0.4%

PSU By 1-6 points

3.1%

PSU By 7-13 points

7.7%

AI Model Projected Score
13.8
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 4.50
43.2
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 44
Simulated Score
16
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 4.50
39
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 44
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Penn State Win
94% Win Prob
A
Sim Penn State Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Buffalo (+39.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +29.4
A
Sim Buffalo (+39.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +23.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 BUFF @ PSU 13 - 55
Sep 7, 2019 BUFF @ PSU 13 - 45
Sep 12, 2015 BUFF @ PSU 14 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +75.0% more
Penn State: 171.9 vs Buffalo: 98.3
First Downs (L5) +31.7% more
Penn State: 22.1 vs Buffalo: 16.8
Total Yards (L5) +25.1% more
Penn State: 425.2 vs Buffalo: 340.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Penn State: 0.5 vs Buffalo: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUFF Score 13.8 13
PSU Score 43.2 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.1 / 16.8 25.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 171.9 / 98.3 304.0 / 113.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.2 / 0.07
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 425.2 / 340.0 573.0 / 173.0
Turnovers 0.1 / 2.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +39.5 / -39.5 → +39.5 / -39.5
67%TICKETS33%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 48.5
86%TICKETS14%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUFF
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
PSU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUFF
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
PSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BUFF
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
PSU
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
BUFF
PSU
BUFF
ML
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
83% 5-1
ATS
50% 3-3
33% 2-4
17% 1-5
67% 4-2
TTL
83% 5-1
50% 3-3
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Michigan Set to Host No. 1 Overall 2028 Prospect Kellan Hall for…
si 4 hours, 38 minutes ago
Michigan Football's Blueprint to Snap Skid Against Penn State: R…
si 1 day, 4 hours ago
Colorado Buffaloes Slip to No. 81 in Latest USA TODAY Sports Re-…
yahoo 3 days, 4 hours ago
Colorado's Defensive Line Faces Stiff Test Against Utah's Dynami…
yahoo 3 days, 23 hours ago
USC Edges Penn State 31-23 Behind Maiava's Three Touchdowns
cadillacnews 4 days, 22 hours ago