Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Georgia @ Arkansas UGA @ ARK

GEORGIA

GEORGIAUGA

3-0  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 12:00 PM ET
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

ARKANSASARK

1-2  |  Home

17
Key Game
Drew Miller
KEY GAME

Drew Miller

#90 | Punter
@
Jesse Ehrlich
KEY GAME

Jesse Ehrlich

#34 | Punter
Player
Drew Miller None-None
Jesse Ehrlich None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA
79%
📊
ARKANSAS
21%
▲ Edge: +13.80% (ARK)
GEORGIA 97% Book Odds: -2778
ARKANSAS 7% Book Odds: +1300
Book Implied: 96.50% / 7.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +7.5 (Under)
Over 54.5 34%
Under 54.5 66%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+14.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
+24.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (Arkansas)
GeorgiaUGA (-24.5) 0 ArkansasARK (+24.5)
Arkansas Razorbacks (+24.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia Cover

15.9%

Arkansas Cover

84.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ARK +14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)

UGA By 1-6 points

12.9%

UGA By 7-13 points

19.0%

ARK By 1-6 points

7.9%

ARK By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
30.5
GEORGIA
Book Implied: 39.50
16.5
ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 15
Simulated Score
25
GEORGIA
Book Implied: 39.50
28
ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 15
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Georgia Win
79% Win Prob
A
Sim Arkansas Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Arkansas (+24.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +14.0
A
Sim Arkansas (+24.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Sim u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 UGA @ ARK 45 - 17
Oct 2, 2021 ARK @ UGA 0 - 37
Sep 26, 2020 UGA @ ARK 37 - 10
Oct 18, 2014 UGA @ ARK 45 - 32
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.6% more
Georgia: 221.1 vs Arkansas: 118.1
Total Yards (L5) +25.7% more
Georgia: 485.7 vs Arkansas: 360.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Georgia: 0.5 vs Arkansas: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +60.0% more
Arkansas: 1.6 vs Georgia: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UGA Score 30.5 45
ARK Score 16.5 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.5 / 23.0 18.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 118.1 / 221.1 17.0 / 254.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.64
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 360.9 / 485.7 300.0 / 464.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -901 / +600 → -2778 / +1300 ↓
97%TICKETS3%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -17.5 / +17.5 → -24.5 / +24.5 ↓
76%TICKETS24%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 54.5 ↑
68%TICKETS32%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UGA Advantage
6-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.2 ATS +/-: +7.3
ARK
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -8.3 ATS +/-: -5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UGA Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 32.2 ATS +/-: +7.3
ARK
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -8.3 ATS +/-: -5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UGA
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +8.3
ARK
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3% Total +/-: -7.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
UGA
ARK
UGA
ML
100% 6-0
100% 5-0
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
ATS
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
17% 1-5
TTL
33% 2-4
60% 3-2
17% 1-5
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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