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COASTAL CAROLINA

COASTALCCU

1-2  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 19 • 11:30 AM ET
Delaware Stadium
View Odds Details →

DELAWARE

DELAWAREDEL

2-1  |  Home

22
Key Game
Roland Podesta
KEY GAME

Roland Podesta

#42 | Punter
@
Josh Cupitt
KEY GAME

Josh Cupitt

#39 | Punter
Player
Roland Podesta None-None
Josh Cupitt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COASTAL
26%
📊
DELAWARE
74%
▲ Edge: +6.30% (DEL)
COASTAL 37% Book Odds: +170
DELAWARE 67% Book Odds: -205
Book Implied: 37% / 67.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.5 (Under)
Over 56.5 36%
Under 56.5 64%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.4
DELAWARE
Book Spread
-4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 points (Delaware)
CoastalCCU (+4.5) 0 DelawareDEL (-4.5)
Delaware Blue Hens (-4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Coastal Cover

22.9%

Delaware Cover

77.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEL -10.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEL)

CCU By 1-6 points

10.4%

CCU By 7-13 points

7.0%

DEL By 1-6 points

15.1%

DEL By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
19.8
COASTAL CAROLINA
Book Implied: 26
30.2
DELAWARE
Book Implied: 30.50
Simulated Score
15
COASTAL CAROLINA
Book Implied: 26
39
DELAWARE
Book Implied: 30.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Delaware Win
74% Win Prob
C
Sim Delaware Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Delaware (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.4
C
Sim Delaware (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Sim u56.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 CCU @ DEL 14 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +16.7% more
Delaware: 1.4 vs Coastal Carolina: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.7% more
Coastal Carolina: 141.0 vs Delaware: 118.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CCU Score 19.8 14
DEL Score 30.2 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.8 / 19.7 22.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 118.8 / 141.0 93.0 / 135.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.42 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 409.8 / 386.1 395.0 / 385.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +150 / -180 → +170 / -205 ↑
12%TICKETS88%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +4.5 / -4.5
36%TICKETS64%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 56.5 ↓
62%TICKETS38%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CCU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -0.4
DEL Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CCU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -0.4
DEL Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CCU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -5.3
DEL
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -7.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEL
CCU
DEL
CCU
ML
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
TTL
67% 2-1
33% 1-2-1
100% 3-0
33% 1-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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