Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Portland St @ Oregon PRST @ ORE

PORTLAND STATE

PORTLAND STPRST

0-4  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Sep 18 • 10:30 PM ET
Autzen Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON

OREGONORE

2-1  |  Home

84
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Emiliano Rodriguez

#88 | Punter
@
Bailey Ettridge
KEY GAME

Bailey Ettridge

#39 | Punter
Player
Emiliano Rodriguez None-None
Bailey Ettridge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PORTLAND ST
3%
📊
OREGON
97%
PORTLAND ST --
OREGON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
66.0
Projected
Book Total
71.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.5 (Under)
Over 71.5 39%
Under 71.5 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+38.0
PORTLAND STATE
Book Spread
+58.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.5 points (Portland State)
Portland StPRST (+58.5) 0 OregonORE (-58.5)
Portland State Vikings (+58.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Portland St Cover

99.7%

Oregon Cover

0.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PRST +38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PRST)

PRST By 1-6 points

0.2%

PRST By 7-13 points

0.1%

ORE By 1-6 points

0.9%

ORE By 7-13 points

2.8%

AI Model Projected Score
14
PORTLAND STATE
Book Implied: 6.50
52
OREGON
Book Implied: 65
Simulated Score
12
PORTLAND STATE
Book Implied: 6.50
43
OREGON
Book Implied: 65
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Oregon Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Oregon Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Portland St (+58.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +38.0
A
Sim Portland St (+58.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +31.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u71.5 Loss
Proj Total: 66.0
B
Sim u71.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 18, 2026 PRST @ ORE 0 - 84
Sep 2, 2023 PRST @ ORE 7 - 81
Sep 8, 2018 PRST @ ORE 14 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +56.2% more
Oregon: 129.3 vs Portland State: 82.8
Total Yards (L5) +48.1% more
Oregon: 412.9 vs Portland State: 278.8
First Downs (L5) +8.8% more
Oregon: 17.2 vs Portland State: 15.8
Turnovers (L5) +20.0% more
Portland State: 1.7 vs Oregon: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PRST Score 14.0 0
ORE Score 52.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.2 / 15.8 43.0 / 5.0
Rushing Yards 129.3 / 82.8 266.0 / 2.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.85 / 0.0
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.91 / 0.09
Total Yards 412.9 / 278.8 723.0 / 103.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.7 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +57.5 / -57.5 → +58.5 / -58.5 ↑
45%TICKETS55%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: 66.5 → 71.5 ↑
52%TICKETS48%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PRST
--
ORE Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: -5.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PRST
--
ORE Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: -5.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PRST
--
ORE
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
PRST
ORE
PRST
ML
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
67% 2-1
ATS
20% 1-4
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
67% 2-1
TTL
20% 1-4
33% 1-2
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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