Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Houston @ Texas Tech HOU @ TTU

HOUSTON

HOUSTONHOU

2-1  |  Road

26
FINAL
Fri, Sep 18 • 8:00 PM ET
Galaxy Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS TECH

TEXAS TECHTTU

3-0  |  Home

28
Key Game
Liam Dougherty
KEY GAME

Liam Dougherty

#91 | Punter
@
Will Karoll
KEY GAME

Will Karoll

#49 | Punter
Player
Liam Dougherty None-None
Will Karoll None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HOUSTON
15%
📊
TEXAS TECH
85%
▲ Edge: +9.30% (TTU)
HOUSTON 29% Book Odds: +250
TEXAS TECH 76% Book Odds: -310
Book Implied: 28.60% / 75.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.4
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 52.5 55%
Under 52.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
TEXAS TECH
Book Spread
-7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (Texas Tech)
HoustonHOU (+7.5) 0 Texas TechTTU (-7.5)
Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Houston Cover

9.9%

Texas Tech Cover

90.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TTU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TTU)

HOU By 1-6 points

5.3%

HOU By 7-13 points

2.8%

TTU By 1-6 points

10.0%

TTU By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
18.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 22.50
36.2
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 30
Simulated Score
26
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 22.50
34
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 30
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Texas Tech Win
85% Win Prob
B
Sim Texas Tech Win
79% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas Tech (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
C
Sim Texas Tech (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.4
C
Sim o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 18, 2026 HOU @ TTU 26 - 28
Oct 4, 2025 TTU @ HOU 35 - 11
Sep 30, 2023 HOU @ TTU 28 - 49
Sep 10, 2022 HOU @ TTU 30 - 33
Sep 4, 2021 TTU @ HOU 38 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +45.0% more
Texas Tech: 1.4 vs Houston: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.6% more
Houston: 268.2 vs Texas Tech: 167.4
First Downs (L5) +17.6% more
Houston: 28.5 vs Texas Tech: 23.5
Total Yards (L5) +15.7% more
Houston: 500.4 vs Texas Tech: 421.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 18.2 26
TTU Score 36.2 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 28.5 22.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 167.4 / 268.2 168.0 / 176.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.6 0.6 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 421.9 / 500.4 425.0 / 458.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -180 / +150 → +250 / -310 ↑
6%TICKETS94%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -4.5 / +4.5 → +7.5 / -7.5 ↑
41%TICKETS59%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 52.5 ↓
85%TICKETS15%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 27.3 ATS +/-: +5.7
TTU Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -13.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 27.3 ATS +/-: +5.7
TTU
0-3-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -13.8
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
3-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.5
TTU
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TTU
HOU
TTU
HOU
ML
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
ATS
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
TTL
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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