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SYRACUSE

SYRACUSESYR

1-2  |  Road

13
FINAL
Thu, Sep 17 • 7:30 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

3-0  |  Home

27
Key Game
Jimmy Gregg
KEY GAME

Jimmy Gregg

#41 | Punter
@
Gabe Russo
KEY GAME

Gabe Russo

#98 | Punter
Player
Jimmy Gregg None-None
Gabe Russo None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SYRACUSE
17%
📊
PITT
83%
▲ Edge: +1.60% (PITT)
SYRACUSE 23% Book Odds: +330
PITT 81% Book Odds: -426
Book Implied: 23.30% / 81%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 58%
Under 51.5 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
-10.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 points (Pittsburgh)
SyracuseSYR (+10.5) 0 PittPITT (-10.5)
Pittsburgh Panthers (-10.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Syracuse Cover

12.1%

Pitt Cover

87.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PITT -16.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PITT)

SYR By 1-6 points

6.3%

SYR By 7-13 points

3.5%

PITT By 1-6 points

11.2%

PITT By 7-13 points

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
18.8
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 20.50
35.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 31
Simulated Score
15
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 20.50
33
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 31
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Pitt Win
83% Win Prob
A
Sim Pitt Win
96% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Pitt (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.4
A
Sim Pitt (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Sim u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 SYR @ PITT 13 - 27
Oct 18, 2025 PITT @ SYR 30 - 13
Oct 24, 2024 SYR @ PITT 13 - 41
Nov 11, 2023 PITT @ SYR 13 - 28
Nov 5, 2022 SYR @ PITT 9 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +36.8% more
Syracuse: 1.7 vs Pittsburgh: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.3% more
Syracuse: 157.3 vs Pittsburgh: 119.1
First Downs (L5) +8.0% more
Syracuse: 23.1 vs Pittsburgh: 21.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SYR Score 18.8 13
PITT Score 35.2 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 23.1 22.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 119.1 / 157.3 245.0 / 142.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 402.3 / 374.4 368.0 / 347.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.7 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +335 / -454 → +330 / -426 ↓
5%TICKETS95%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +11 / -11 → +10.5 / -10.5 ↓
41%TICKETS59%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 51.5
69%TICKETS31%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SYR
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
PITT Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 12.1 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SYR Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
PITT
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 12.1 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SYR
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +4.0
PITT
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
SYR
PITT
SYR
ML
78% 7-2
62% 5-3
56% 5-4
75% 6-2
ATS
56% 5-4
38% 3-5
22% 2-7
88% 7-1
TTL
44% 4-5
62% 5-3
67% 6-3
75% 6-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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