SYRACUSE
SYRACUSESYR
1-2 | Road
13
PITTSBURGH
PITTPITT
3-0 | Home
27
Key Game
KEY GAME
Jimmy Gregg
#41 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Gabe Russo
#98 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Jimmy Gregg | None-None |
| Gabe Russo | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SYRACUSE
17%
PITT
83%
▲ Edge: +1.60% (PITT)
SYRACUSE
23%
Book Odds: +330
PITT
81%
Book Odds: -426
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 51.5
58%
Under 51.5
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
-10.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PITT -16.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PITT)
SYR By 1-6 points
6.3%
SYR By 7-13 points
3.5%
PITT By 1-6 points
11.2%
PITT By 7-13 points
17.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Syracuse
18.8
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 20.50
Pittsburgh
35.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 31
Simulated Score
Syracuse
15
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 20.50
Pittsburgh
33
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 31
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Pitt
Win
83% Win Prob
A
Sim
Pitt
Win
96% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Pitt (-10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.4
A
Sim
Pitt (-10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o51.5
Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Sim
u51.5
Win
Proj Total: 48.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
SYR @ PITT
13 - 27
Oct 18, 2025
PITT @ SYR
30 - 13
Oct 24, 2024
SYR @ PITT
13 - 41
Nov 11, 2023
PITT @ SYR
13 - 28
Nov 5, 2022
SYR @ PITT
9 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+36.8% more
Syracuse: 1.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5)
+24.3% more
Syracuse: 157.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 119.1
First Downs (L5)
+8.0% more
Syracuse: 23.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 21.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SYR Score
18.8
13
PITT Score
35.2
27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
21.3 / 23.1
22.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards
119.1 / 157.3
245.0 / 142.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.5 / 0.36
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards
402.3 / 374.4
368.0 / 347.0
Turnovers
1.1 / 1.7
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +335 / -454
→
+330 / -426
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +11 / -11
→
+10.5 / -10.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5
→
51.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SYR
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +4.5
PITT
Advantage
5-1-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 20.2
ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SYR
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +4.5
PITT
Advantage
4-2-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 20.2
ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SYR
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0%
Total +/-: +3.7
PITT
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7%
Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
SYR
PITT
SYR
ML
83%
5-1
80%
4-1
67%
4-2
80%
4-1
ATS
67%
4-2
40%
2-3
17%
1-5
80%
4-1
TTL
17%
1-5
60%
3-2
67%
4-2
80%
4-1
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