Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico St @ Hawai'i NMSU @ HAW

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

1-2  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 11:59 PM ET
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

1-2  |  Home

29
Key Game
Brody Richter
KEY GAME

Brody Richter

#91 | Punter
@
Gehrig Heil
KEY GAME

Gehrig Heil

#47 | Punter
Player
Brody Richter None-None
Gehrig Heil None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO ST
23%
📊
HAWAI'I
77%
▲ Edge: +0.90% (HAW)
NEW MEXICO ST 28% Book Odds: +261
HAWAI'I 76% Book Odds: -314
Book Implied: 27.70% / 75.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.5
Projected
Book Total
50.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 (Over)
Over 50.0 60%
Under 50.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.5
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
-7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Hawai'i)
New Mexico StNMSU (+7.5) 0 Hawai'iHAW (-7.5)
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (-7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico St Cover

18.6%

Hawai'i Cover

81.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HAW -12.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

NMSU By 1-6 points

8.9%

NMSU By 7-13 points

5.6%

HAW By 1-6 points

13.8%

HAW By 7-13 points

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
21
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Implied: 21.20
33.5
HAWAI'I
Book Implied: 28.80
Simulated Score
22
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Implied: 21.20
32
HAWAI'I
Book Implied: 28.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Hawai'i Win
77% Win Prob
B
Sim Hawai'i Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawai'i (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.5
C
Sim Hawai'i (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o50.0 Loss
Proj Total: 54.5
C
Sim o50.0 Loss
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 NMSU @ HAW 19 - 29
Sep 23, 2023 NMSU @ HAW 17 - 20
Sep 24, 2022 HAW @ NMSU 26 - 45
Oct 23, 2021 NMSU @ HAW 34 - 48
Sep 25, 2021 HAW @ NMSU 41 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +50.3% more
New Mexico State: 1.6 vs Hawai'i: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.8% more
New Mexico State: 144.3 vs Hawai'i: 108.5
Total Yards (L5) +16.1% more
New Mexico State: 425.3 vs Hawai'i: 357.0
First Downs (L5) +13.2% more
New Mexico State: 22.4 vs Hawai'i: 19.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 21.0 19
HAW Score 33.5 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 22.4 21.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 108.5 / 144.3 67.0 / 124.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 357.0 / 425.3 420.0 / 380.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.6 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +304 / -404 → +261 / -314 ↓
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10 / -10 → +7.5 / -7.5 ↓
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 50 ↓
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU Advantage
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
HAW
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
HAW
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
HAW
1-5-0
O: 16.7% / U: 83.3% Total +/-: -8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
NMSU
HAW
NMSU
ML
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
83% 5-1
83% 5-1
ATS
33% 2-4
80% 4-1
83% 5-1
67% 4-2
TTL
33% 2-4
40% 2-3
17% 1-5
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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