Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Montana St @ Nevada MTST @ NEV

MONTANA STATE

MONTANA STMTST

3-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 10:30 PM ET
Mackay Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

1-1  |  Home

7
Key Game
Colby Frokjer
KEY GAME

Colby Frokjer

#30 | Punter
@
Ewan Baulch
KEY GAME

Ewan Baulch

#95 | Punter
Player
Colby Frokjer None-None
Ewan Baulch None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MONTANA ST
12%
📊
NEVADA
88%
▲ Edge: +50.70% (NEV)
MONTANA ST 67% Book Odds: -205
NEVADA 37% Book Odds: +170
Book Implied: 67.20% / 37%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.5
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 (Over)
Over 51.5 57%
Under 51.5 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.5
NEVADA
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Nevada)
Montana StMTST (-4.5) 0 NevadaNEV (+4.5)
Nevada Wolf Pack (+4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Montana St Cover

7.2%

Nevada Cover

92.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NEV -20.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)

MTST By 1-6 points

4.0%

MTST By 7-13 points

1.9%

NEV By 1-6 points

8.2%

NEV By 7-13 points

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
17
MONTANA STATE
Book Implied: 28
37.5
NEVADA
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
23
MONTANA STATE
Book Implied: 28
22
NEVADA
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nevada Loss
88% Win Prob
A
Sim Montana St Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Nevada (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.5
A
Sim Nevada (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 54.5
C
Sim u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 MTST @ NEV 20 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +43.3% more
Nevada: 225.2 vs Montana State: 157.2
Turnovers (L5) +36.4% more
Nevada: 1.5 vs Montana State: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +11.5% more
Nevada: 370.6 vs Montana State: 332.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTST Score 17.0 20
NEV Score 37.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 18.0 22.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 225.2 / 157.2 182.0 / 151.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.31 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.55
Total Yards 370.6 / 332.3 349.0 / 330.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.1 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -166 / +140 → -205 / +170 ↓
83%TICKETS17%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3.5 / +3.5 → -4.5 / +4.5 ↓
43%TICKETS57%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 51.5 ↑
16%TICKETS84%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST
--
NEV Advantage
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: +5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST
--
NEV Advantage
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: +5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
--
NEV
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
MTST
NEV
MTST
ML
33% 1-2
0% 0-1
67% 2-1
100% 1-0
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-1
33% 1-2
0% 0-1
TTL
0% 0-3
0% 0-1
67% 2-1
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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