Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Sacramento St @ Fresno St SAC @ FRES

SACRAMENTO STATE

SACRAMENTO STSAC

1-2  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 10:30 PM ET
Valley Children's Stadium
View Odds Details →

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

1-1  |  Home

49
Key Game
Hamish Adams
KEY GAME

Hamish Adams

#37 | Punter
@
Jordan Malau'ulu
KEY GAME

Jordan Malau'ulu

#10 | Wide Receiver
Player
Hamish Adams None-None
Jordan Malau'ulu None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SACRAMENTO ST
26%
📊
FRESNO ST
74%
▲ Edge: +12.60% (SAC)
SACRAMENTO ST 13% Book Odds: +666
FRESNO ST 91% Book Odds: -979
Book Implied: 13.10% / 90.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.6
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.1 (Over)
Over 44.5 66%
Under 44.5 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.0
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Spread
+18.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Sacramento State)
Sacramento StSAC (+18.5) 0 Fresno StFRES (-18.5)
Sacramento State Hornets (+18.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sacramento St Cover

78.4%

Fresno St Cover

21.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SAC +11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-6 points

10.0%

SAC By 7-13 points

6.6%

FRES By 1-6 points

14.7%

FRES By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
19.8
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 13
30.8
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 31.50
Simulated Score
22
SACRAMENTO STATE
Book Implied: 13
31
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 31.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Fresno St Win
74% Win Prob
B
Sim Fresno St Win
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Sacramento St (+18.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +11.0
B
Sim Sacramento St (+18.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +9.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.6
B
Sim o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 SAC @ FRES 3 - 49
Sep 7, 2024 SAC @ FRES 30 - 46
Sep 21, 2019 SAC @ FRES 20 - 34
Sep 10, 2016 SAC @ FRES 3 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +33.8% more
Sacramento State: 2.1 vs Fresno State: 1.4
First Downs (L5) +32.6% more
Sacramento State: 21.3 vs Fresno State: 14.4
Total Yards (L5) +31.8% more
Sacramento State: 413.1 vs Fresno State: 281.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Sacramento State: 0.4 vs Fresno State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 19.8 3
FRES Score 30.8 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.4 / 21.3 26.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 140.4 / 157.2 193.0 / 112.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 281.6 / 413.1 542.0 / 262.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 2.1 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +652 / -1113 → +666 / -979 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +18.5 / -18.5 → +18.5 / -18.5
53%TICKETS47%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48 → 44.5 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -9.1
FRES Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +8.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -9.1
FRES Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +8.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -2.7
FRES
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
SAC
FRES
SAC
ML
67% 4-2
80% 4-1
100% 6-0
67% 4-2
ATS
33% 2-4
20% 1-4
67% 4-2
33% 2-4
TTL
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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