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TEXAS SOUTHERN

TEXAS SOUTHERNTXSO

1-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 9:00 PM ET
Sun Bowl
View Odds Details →

UTEP

UTEPUTEP

1-1  |  Home

51
Key Game
Brian Mays
KEY GAME

Brian Mays

#50 | Place kicker
@
Brady Braun
KEY GAME

Brady Braun

#47 | Punter
Player
Brian Mays None-None
Brady Braun None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS SOUTHERN
12%
📊
UTEP
88%
▲ Edge: +6.30% (TXSO)
TEXAS SOUTHERN 6% Book Odds: +1700
UTEP 98% Book Odds: -4500
Book Implied: 5.60% / 97.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
53.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 53.5 54%
Under 53.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+21.0
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Book Spread
+27.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Texas Southern)
Texas SouthernTXSO (+27.5) 0 UTEPUTEP (-27.5)
Texas Southern Tigers (+27.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas Southern Cover

93.3%

UTEP Cover

6.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TXSO +21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXSO)

TXSO By 1-6 points

3.8%

TXSO By 7-13 points

1.8%

UTEP By 1-6 points

7.9%

UTEP By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
17
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 13
38
UTEP
Book Implied: 40.50
Simulated Score
16
TEXAS SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 13
28
UTEP
Book Implied: 40.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UTEP Win
88% Win Prob
C
Sim UTEP Win
88% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texas Southern (+27.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +21.0
C
Sim Texas Southern (+27.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +12.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o53.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim u53.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 TXSO @ UTEP 10 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +61.8% more
UTEP: 2.5 vs Texas Southern: 1.5
Total Yards (L5) +37.4% more
UTEP: 296.7 vs Texas Southern: 216.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.8% more
UTEP: 115.5 vs Texas Southern: 85.1
First Downs (L5) +13.6% more
UTEP: 15.4 vs Texas Southern: 13.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXSO Score 17.0 10
UTEP Score 38.0 51
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.4 / 13.6 21.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 115.5 / 85.1 252.0 / 112.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 296.7 / 216.0 491.0 / 211.0
Turnovers 2.5 / 1.5 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2000 / -6500 → +1700 / -4500 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +25.5 / -25.5 → +27.5 / -27.5 ↑
47%TICKETS53%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 53.5 ↑
55%TICKETS45%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXSO
--
UTEP Advantage
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -23.7 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXSO
--
UTEP Advantage
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -23.7 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TXSO
--
UTEP
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTEP
TXSO
UTEP
TXSO
ML
100% 6-0
100% 3-0
67% 4-2
100% 3-0
ATS
0% 0-6
33% 1-2
0% 0-6
33% 1-2
TTL
83% 5-1
33% 1-2
67% 4-2
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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