Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Cal Poly @ San José St CP @ SJSU

CAL POLY

CAL POLYCP

2-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 9:00 PM ET
CEFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

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30
Key Game
Dean Scrivner
KEY GAME

Dean Scrivner

#41 | Punter
@
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
Player
Dean Scrivner None-None
Trent Carrizosa None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CAL POLY
11%
📊
SAN JOSÉ ST
89%
CAL POLY 11% Book Odds: +796
SAN JOSÉ ST 94% Book Odds: -1658
Book Implied: 11.20% / 94.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.4
Projected
Book Total
58.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 (Over)
Over 58.0 52%
Under 58.0 48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
-21
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San José State)
Cal PolyCP (+21) 0 San José StSJSU (-21)
San José State Spartans (-21) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cal Poly Cover

5.8%

San José St Cover

94.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SJSU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

CP By 1-6 points

3.3%

CP By 7-13 points

1.5%

SJSU By 1-6 points

7.2%

SJSU By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
18.2
CAL POLY
Book Implied: 18.50
40.2
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 39.50
Simulated Score
16
CAL POLY
Book Implied: 18.50
32
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 39.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI San José St Win
89% Win Prob
B
Sim San José St Win
94% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI San José St (-21) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Cal Poly (+21) Win
Proj Spread: +16.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o58.0 Loss
Proj Total: 58.4
D
Sim u58.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 CP @ SJSU 20 - 30
Sep 9, 2023 CP @ SJSU 3 - 59
Sep 2, 2017 CP @ SJSU 13 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +70.4% more
San José State: 2.9 vs Cal Poly: 1.7
Total Yards (L5) +50.3% more
San José State: 364.5 vs Cal Poly: 242.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.6% more
San José State: 127.7 vs Cal Poly: 86.5
First Downs (L5) +37.1% more
San José State: 18.3 vs Cal Poly: 13.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CP Score 18.2 20
SJSU Score 40.2 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.3 / 13.3 27.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 127.7 / 86.5 255.0 / 91.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.25 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 364.5 / 242.5 493.0 / 340.0
Turnovers 2.9 / 1.7 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +708 / -1523 → +796 / -1658
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +20.5 / -20.5 → +21 / -21 ↑
34%TICKETS66%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 58 ↑
36%TICKETS64%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CP
--
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CP
--
SJSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: +2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CP
--
SJSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
CP
SJSU
CP
ML
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
TTL
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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