Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Grambling @ TCU GRAM @ TCU

GRAMBLING

GRAMBLINGGRAM

2-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 8:00 PM ET
Amon G. Carter Stadium
View Odds Details →

TCU

TCUTCU

1-1  |  Home

63
Key Game
Diego Alfaro
KEY GAME

Diego Alfaro

#39 | Place kicker
@
John Hoyet Chance
KEY GAME

John Hoyet Chance

#48 | Punter
Player
Diego Alfaro None-None
John Hoyet Chance None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GRAMBLING
4%
📊
TCU
96%
GRAMBLING --
TCU --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 56.5 49%
Under 56.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+34.0
GRAMBLING
Book Spread
+44.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (Grambling)
GramblingGRAM (+44.5) 0 TCUTCU (-44.5)
Grambling Tigers (+44.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grambling Cover

99.2%

TCU Cover

0.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GRAM +34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GRAM)

GRAM By 1-6 points

0.5%

GRAM By 7-13 points

0.2%

TCU By 1-6 points

1.6%

TCU By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
10.5
GRAMBLING
Book Implied: 6
44.5
TCU
Book Implied: 50.50
Simulated Score
12
GRAMBLING
Book Implied: 6
45
TCU
Book Implied: 50.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI TCU Win
96% Win Prob
A
Sim TCU Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Grambling (+44.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +34.0
B
Sim Grambling (+44.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +33.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 GRAM @ TCU 7 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +107.7% more
TCU: 440.4 vs Grambling: 212.1
First Downs (L5) +95.9% more
TCU: 23.1 vs Grambling: 11.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +62.6% more
TCU: 160.0 vs Grambling: 98.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
TCU: 0.4 vs Grambling: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GRAM Score 10.5 7
TCU Score 44.5 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.1 / 11.8 33.0 / 7.0
Rushing Yards 160.0 / 98.4 285.0 / 20.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.29 / 0.07
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 440.4 / 212.1 676.0 / 210.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.9 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +43.5 / -43.5 → +44.5 / -44.5 ↑
76%TICKETS24%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 56.5 ↑
21%TICKETS79%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GRAM
--
TCU Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GRAM
--
TCU Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GRAM
--
TCU
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
GRAM
TCU
GRAM
ML
67% 2-1
100% 1-0
67% 2-1
100% 1-0
ATS
33% 1-2
0% 0-1
33% 1-2
0% 0-1
TTL
33% 1-2
0% 0-1
33% 1-2
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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