Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Southern Miss @ Auburn USM @ AUB

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

1-1  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:45 PM ET
Jordan-Hare Stadium
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

2-0  |  Home

43
Key Game
Jameer Lewis
KEY GAME

Jameer Lewis

#9 | Defensive Lineman
@
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
Player
Jameer Lewis None-None
Hudson Kaak None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTHERN MISS
7%
📊
AUBURN
93%
SOUTHERN MISS --
AUBURN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.5
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 56.5 53%
Under 56.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+27.5
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
+33
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Southern Miss)
Southern MissUSM (+33) 0 AuburnAUB (-33)
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (+33) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Southern Miss Cover

97.5%

Auburn Cover

2.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USM +27.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

USM By 1-6 points

1.5%

USM By 7-13 points

0.6%

AUB By 1-6 points

4.0%

AUB By 7-13 points

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
15
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Implied: 11.80
42.5
AUBURN
Book Implied: 44.80
Simulated Score
27
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Implied: 11.80
32
AUBURN
Book Implied: 44.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Auburn Win
93% Win Prob
B
Sim Auburn Win
68% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Southern Miss (+33) Loss
Proj Spread: +27.5
C
Sim Southern Miss (+33) Loss
Proj Spread: +5.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.5
D
Sim o56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 USM @ AUB 8 - 43
Sep 29, 2018 USM @ AUB 13 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +43.6% more
Auburn: 1.7 vs Southern Miss: 1.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Auburn: 0.5 vs Southern Miss: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +8.8% more
Southern Miss: 24.8 vs Auburn: 22.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 15.0 8
AUB Score 42.5 43
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.6 / 24.8 31.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 168.7 / 180.7 343.0 / 50.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 417.9 / 438.2 610.0 / 221.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
3%TICKETS97%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +29 / -29 → +33 / -33 ↑
92%TICKETS8%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52 → 56.5 ↑
7%TICKETS93%
11%MONEY89%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
AUB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
AUB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
AUB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
USM
AUB
USM
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
0% 0-5
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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