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NAVY

NAVYNAVY

1-1  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:30 PM ET
Flagler Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA ATLANTIC

FAUFAU

1-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
Jacob Carlson
KEY GAME

Jacob Carlson

#11 | Punter
@
Reed Chandley
KEY GAME

Reed Chandley

#91 | Punter
Player
Jacob Carlson None-None
Reed Chandley None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NAVY
57%
📊
FAU
43%
▲ Edge: +5.40% (FAU)
NAVY 66% Book Odds: -191
FAU 38% Book Odds: +167
Book Implied: 65.60% / 37.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.6
Projected
Book Total
59.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +10.9 (Under)
Over 59.5 27%
Under 59.5 73%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Florida Atlantic)
NavyNAVY (-4.5) 0 FAUFAU (+4.5)
Florida Atlantic Owls (+4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Navy Cover

41.5%

FAU Cover

58.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around FAU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAU)

NAVY By 1-6 points

17.0%

NAVY By 7-13 points

17.5%

FAU By 1-6 points

15.3%

FAU By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
25.8
NAVY
Book Implied: 32
22.8
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Implied: 27.50
Simulated Score
27
NAVY
Book Implied: 32
37
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Implied: 27.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Navy Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim FAU Win
84% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI FAU (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim FAU (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u59.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.6
A
Sim o59.5 Win
Proj Total: 64.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 NAVY @ FAU 30 - 38
Oct 25, 2025 FAU @ NAVY 32 - 42
Sep 1, 2017 NAVY @ FAU 42 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +70.2% more
Navy: 353.4 vs Florida Atlantic: 105.5
Time of Possession (L5) +14.0% more
Navy: 0.6 vs Florida Atlantic: 0.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Navy: 0.5 vs Florida Atlantic: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +231.0% more
Florida Atlantic: 3.1 vs Navy: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAVY Score 25.8 30
FAU Score 22.8 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.7 / 23.7 27.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 105.5 / 353.4 42.0 / 246.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 438.3 / 422.4 428.0 / 393.0
Turnovers 3.1 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -217 / +179 → -191 / +167 ↑
96%TICKETS4%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -5.5 / +5.5 → -4.5 / +4.5 ↑
72%TICKETS28%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: 59 → 59.5 ↑
13%TICKETS87%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAVY
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAVY
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
FAU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.6 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NAVY
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
FAU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAU
NAVY
FAU
NAVY
ML
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
100% 4-0
TTL
60% 3-2
0% 0-4
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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