Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / GA Southern @ Clemson GASO @ CLEM

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

GA SOUTHERNGASO

1-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 9:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
View Odds Details →

CLEMSON

CLEMSONCLEM

1-1  |  Home

22
Key Game
Tripp Bryant
KEY GAME

Tripp Bryant

#95 | Place kicker
@
Jack Smith
KEY GAME

Jack Smith

#89 | Punter
Player
Tripp Bryant None-None
Jack Smith None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GA SOUTHERN
8%
📊
CLEMSON
92%
GA SOUTHERN 11% Book Odds: +834
CLEMSON 93% Book Odds: -1319
Book Implied: 10.70% / 93%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
55.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 55.0 53%
Under 55.0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
CLEMSON
Book Spread
-20.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Clemson)
GA SouthernGASO (+20.5) 0 ClemsonCLEM (-20.5)
Clemson Tigers (-20.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

GA Southern Cover

3.7%

Clemson Cover

96.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CLEM -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLEM)

GASO By 1-6 points

2.2%

GASO By 7-13 points

0.9%

CLEM By 1-6 points

5.3%

CLEM By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
15.5
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 17.20
40.5
CLEMSON
Book Implied: 37.80
Simulated Score
29
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Implied: 17.20
30
CLEMSON
Book Implied: 37.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Clemson Win
92% Win Prob
B
Sim Clemson Win
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Clemson (-20.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
C
Sim GA Southern (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o55.0 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
D
Sim o55.0 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 GASO @ CLEM 7 - 22
Sep 15, 2018 GASO @ CLEM 7 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +40.0% more
Georgia Southern: 150.5 vs Clemson: 90.3
Total Yards (L5) +35.5% more
Georgia Southern: 438.3 vs Clemson: 282.7
Turnovers (L5) +33.0% more
Georgia Southern: 1.0 vs Clemson: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +29.0% more
Georgia Southern: 22.9 vs Clemson: 16.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 15.5 7
CLEM Score 40.5 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.3 / 22.9 22.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 90.3 / 150.5 150.0 / 22.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.5 0.14 / 0.24
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 282.7 / 438.3 347.0 / 266.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1700 / -4545 → +834 / -1319 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +26.5 / -26.5 → +20.5 / -20.5 ↓
31%TICKETS69%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5 → 55 ↓
7%TICKETS93%
10%MONEY90%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +4.1
CLEM Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO Advantage
7-1-0 (87.5%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +4.1
CLEM
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -8.1
CLEM
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLEM
GASO
CLEM
GASO
ML
62% 5-3
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
62% 5-3
ATS
50% 4-4
12% 1-7
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
TTL
50% 4-4
25% 2-6
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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