Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / San Diego St @ UCLA SDSU @ UCLA

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

1-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:15 PM ET
Rose Bowl
View Odds Details →

UCLA

UCLAUCLA

2-0  |  Home

28
Key Game
Tashi Dorje
KEY GAME

Tashi Dorje

#89 | Punter
@
Curtis Gerrand
KEY GAME

Curtis Gerrand

#35 | Punter
Player
Tashi Dorje None-None
Curtis Gerrand None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAN DIEGO ST
12%
📊
UCLA
88%
▲ Edge: +3.30% (UCLA)
SAN DIEGO ST 20% Book Odds: +413
UCLA 84% Book Odds: -538
Book Implied: 19.50% / 84.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.5
Projected
Book Total
54.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 54.0 53%
Under 54.0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.5
UCLA
Book Spread
-13.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (UCLA)
San Diego StSDSU (+13.5) 0 UCLAUCLA (-13.5)
UCLA Bruins (-13.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

San Diego St Cover

7.2%

UCLA Cover

92.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UCLA -20.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCLA)

SDSU By 1-6 points

4.0%

SDSU By 7-13 points

1.9%

UCLA By 1-6 points

8.2%

UCLA By 7-13 points

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
17
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 20.20
37.5
UCLA
Book Implied: 33.80
Simulated Score
22
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 20.20
23
UCLA
Book Implied: 33.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UCLA Win
88% Win Prob
C
Sim UCLA Win
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UCLA (-13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.5
C
Sim San Diego St (+13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o54.0 Loss
Proj Total: 54.5
D
Sim u54.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 SDSU @ UCLA 10 - 28
Sep 9, 2023 UCLA @ SDSU 35 - 10
Sep 7, 2019 SDSU @ UCLA 23 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +54.7% more
San Diego State: 2.3 vs UCLA: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.7% more
San Diego State: 238.0 vs UCLA: 162.6
First Downs (L5) +16.2% more
San Diego State: 20.4 vs UCLA: 17.1
Total Yards (L5) +12.8% more
San Diego State: 390.9 vs UCLA: 341.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 17.0 10
UCLA Score 37.5 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.1 / 20.4 19.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 162.6 / 238.0 214.0 / 144.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 341.0 / 390.9 365.0 / 189.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 2.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +347 / -476 → +413 / -538 ↑
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +11.5 / -11.5 → +13.5 / -13.5 ↑
24%TICKETS76%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52 → 54 ↑
12%TICKETS88%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -12.2 ATS +/-: -12.3
UCLA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +16.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -12.2 ATS +/-: -12.3
UCLA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +16.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.0
UCLA
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
SDSU
UCLA
SDSU
ML
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
ATS
25% 1-3-1
67% 4-2
0% 0-4-1
67% 4-2
TTL
40% 2-3
33% 2-4
40% 2-3
33% 2-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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