Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Lindenwood @ Missouri St LIN @ MOST

LINDENWOOD

LINDENWOODLIN

1-2  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Robert W. Plaster Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

1-1  |  Home

48
Key Game
Connor Lander
KEY GAME

Connor Lander

#43 | Punter
@
Stewart McDonald
KEY GAME

Stewart McDonald

#25 | Punter
Player
Connor Lander None-None
Stewart McDonald None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LINDENWOOD
7%
📊
MISSOURI ST
93%
▲ Edge: +2.90% (MOST)
LINDENWOOD 16% Book Odds: +533
MISSOURI ST 90% Book Odds: -899
Book Implied: 15.80% / 90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 (Over)
Over 52.5 61%
Under 52.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
-16.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 points (Missouri State)
LindenwoodLIN (+16.5) 0 Missouri StMOST (-16.5)
Missouri State Bears (-16.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lindenwood Cover

2.7%

Missouri St Cover

97.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MOST -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

LIN By 1-6 points

1.6%

LIN By 7-13 points

0.6%

MOST By 1-6 points

4.2%

MOST By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
15
LINDENWOOD
Book Implied: 18
42
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 34.50
Simulated Score
13
LINDENWOOD
Book Implied: 18
38
MISSOURI STATE
Book Implied: 34.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Missouri St Win
93% Win Prob
B
Sim Missouri St Win
99% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Missouri St (-16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
B
Sim Missouri St (-16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Sim u52.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 LIN @ MOST 14 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +61.6% more
Missouri State: 301.3 vs Lindenwood: 186.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +54.4% more
Missouri State: 81.5 vs Lindenwood: 52.8
First Downs (L5) +46.0% more
Missouri State: 16.4 vs Lindenwood: 11.2
Turnovers (L5) +25.0% more
Missouri State: 2.0 vs Lindenwood: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIN Score 15.0 14
MOST Score 42.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.4 / 11.2 27.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 81.5 / 52.8 264.0 / 118.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.54 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 301.3 / 186.4 584.0 / 223.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.6 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +513 / -912 → +533 / -899
4%TICKETS96%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +16.5 / -16.5 → +16.5 / -16.5
93%TICKETS7%
91%MONEY9%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 52.5
34%TICKETS66%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIN
--
MOST Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIN
--
MOST Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LIN
--
MOST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
LIN
MOST
LIN
ML
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
100% 4-0
100% 3-0
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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