Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / MTSU @ Marshall MTSU @ MRSH

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

MTSUMTSU

1-1  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Joan C. Edwards Stadium
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

MARSHALLMRSH

1-1  |  Home

28
Key Game
Ashton Logan
KEY GAME

Ashton Logan

#92 | Punter
@
Cooper Heimbach
KEY GAME

Cooper Heimbach

#91 | Punter
Player
Ashton Logan None-None
Cooper Heimbach None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MTSU
17%
📊
MARSHALL
83%
MTSU 19% Book Odds: +438
MARSHALL 85% Book Odds: -577
Book Implied: 18.60% / 85.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.4
Projected
Book Total
56.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.6 (Under)
Over 56.0 41%
Under 56.0 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
-12.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Marshall)
MTSUMTSU (+12.5) 0 MarshallMRSH (-12.5)
Marshall Thundering Herd (-12.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

MTSU Cover

11.2%

Marshall Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MRSH -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

MTSU By 1-6 points

5.9%

MTSU By 7-13 points

3.2%

MRSH By 1-6 points

10.7%

MRSH By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
18.2
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 21.80
35.2
MARSHALL
Book Implied: 34.20
Simulated Score
22
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 21.80
34
MARSHALL
Book Implied: 34.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Marshall Win
83% Win Prob
C
Sim Marshall Win
88% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marshall (-12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
B
Sim Marshall (-12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u56.0 Win
Proj Total: 53.4
C
Sim o56.0 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 MTSU @ MRSH 26 - 28
Sep 20, 2025 MRSH @ MTSU 42 - 28
Oct 2, 2021 MRSH @ MTSU 28 - 34
Nov 14, 2020 MTSU @ MRSH 14 - 42
Oct 5, 2019 MRSH @ MTSU 13 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +103.0% more
Marshall: 1.6 vs Middle Tennessee: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.0% more
Middle Tennessee: 167.7 vs Marshall: 127.4
Total Yards (L5) +22.7% more
Middle Tennessee: 426.2 vs Marshall: 329.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Middle Tennessee: 0.4 vs Marshall: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score 18.2 26
MRSH Score 35.2 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.2 / 20.8 19.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 127.4 / 167.7 129.0 / 109.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 329.5 / 426.2 310.0 / 352.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +514 / -797 → +438 / -577 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +16 / -16 → +12.5 / -12.5 ↓
52%TICKETS48%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5 → 56 ↓
6%TICKETS94%
9%MONEY91%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 9.7 ATS +/-: +7.2
MRSH
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -12.3 ATS +/-: -9.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 9.7 ATS +/-: +7.2
MRSH
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -12.3 ATS +/-: -9.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
0-3-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -2.8
MRSH
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
MTSU
MRSH
MTSU
ML
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
0% 0-3
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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