Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Georgia St @ Kennesaw St GAST @ KENN

GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

2-0  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium
View Odds Details →

KENNESAW STATE

KENNESAW STKENN

1-1  |  Home

17
Key Game
Samer Layous
KEY GAME

Samer Layous

#39 | Place kicker
@
Matt McKenzie
KEY GAME

Matt McKenzie

#34 | Punter
Player
Samer Layous None-None
Matt McKenzie None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA ST
11%
📊
KENNESAW ST
89%
▲ Edge: +11.70% (KENN)
GEORGIA ST 27% Book Odds: +275
KENNESAW ST 77% Book Odds: -332
Book Implied: 26.70% / 76.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.5
Projected
Book Total
55.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 55.0 64%
Under 55.0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.5
KENNESAW STATE
Book Spread
-9
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.5 points (Kennesaw State)
Georgia StGAST (+9) 0 Kennesaw StKENN (-9)
Kennesaw State Owls (-9) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia St Cover

6.2%

Kennesaw St Cover

93.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KENN -21.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KENN)

GAST By 1-6 points

3.5%

GAST By 7-13 points

1.7%

KENN By 1-6 points

7.5%

KENN By 7-13 points

14.2%

AI Model Projected Score
20
GEORGIA STATE
Book Implied: 23
41.5
KENNESAW STATE
Book Implied: 32
Simulated Score
23
GEORGIA STATE
Book Implied: 23
32
KENNESAW STATE
Book Implied: 32
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kennesaw St Loss
89% Win Prob
B
Sim Kennesaw St Loss
81% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kennesaw St (-9) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.5
B
Sim Georgia St (+9) Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o55.0 Loss
Proj Total: 61.5
B
Sim o55.0 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 GAST @ KENN 31 - 17
Aug 30, 2018 KENN @ GAST 20 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +100.0% more
Kennesaw State: 2.0 vs Georgia State: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 20.0 31
KENN Score 41.5 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.5 / 22.8 17.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 200.6 / 188.9 72.0 / 230.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.22 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 438.0 / 447.7 332.0 / 483.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +270 / -340 → +275 / -332
1%TICKETS99%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5 → +9 / -9 ↓
45%TICKETS55%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 55 ↑
15%TICKETS85%
16%MONEY84%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
KENN
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
KENN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.9
KENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENN
GAST
KENN
GAST
ML
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1
0% 0-5
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
TTL
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Bryce Young Returns to Tuscaloosa as ESPN College GameDay Guest …
yahoo 5 hours, 45 minutes ago
Pat Narduzzi Tells AP Voters to 'Wake Their A** Up' After Pitt's…
awfulannouncing 5 days, 18 hours ago
Texas Opens SEC Play as 5.5-Point Favorite at Tennessee
yahoo 2 weeks, 3 days ago
UCLA Football Urged to Start Fast Against Purdue in Big Ten Open…
dailybreeze 3 weeks ago
Arizona State's Dillingham Points to Scheduling Disparity Before…
timesargus 3 weeks, 2 days ago