Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Alabama @ Tulane USA @ TULN

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

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24
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Yulman Stadium
View Odds Details →

TULANE

TULANETULN

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28
Key Game
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
@
William Hudlow
KEY GAME

William Hudlow

#34 | Punter
Player
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
William Hudlow None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH ALABAMA
11%
📊
TULANE
89%
▲ Edge: +10.50% (TULN)
SOUTH ALABAMA 25% Book Odds: +303
TULANE 79% Book Odds: -372
Book Implied: 24.80% / 78.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 48.5 65%
Under 48.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.6
TULANE
Book Spread
-10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.6 points (Tulane)
South AlabamaUSA (+10) 0 TulaneTULN (-10)
Tulane Green Wave (-10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Alabama Cover

5.3%

Tulane Cover

94.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TULN -22.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TULN)

USA By 1-6 points

3.1%

USA By 7-13 points

1.4%

TULN By 1-6 points

6.8%

TULN By 7-13 points

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16.2
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 19.20
38.8
TULANE
Book Implied: 29.20
Simulated Score
23
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 19.20
28
TULANE
Book Implied: 29.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tulane Win
89% Win Prob
B
Sim Tulane Win
68% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tulane (-10) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.6
B
Sim South Alabama (+10) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 USA @ TULN 24 - 28
Sep 6, 2025 TULN @ USA 33 - 31
Sep 2, 2023 USA @ TULN 17 - 37
Sep 12, 2020 TULN @ USA 27 - 24
Sep 7, 2013 USA @ TULN 41 - 39
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +101.0% more
Tulane: 1.5 vs South Alabama: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.3% more
South Alabama: 221.2 vs Tulane: 118.7
First Downs (L5) +25.9% more
South Alabama: 23.9 vs Tulane: 17.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
South Alabama: 0.4 vs Tulane: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 16.2 24
TULN Score 38.8 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.7 / 23.9 13.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 118.7 / 221.2 212.0 / 182.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.62
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 358.3 / 389.9 424.0 / 478.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +321 / -431 → +303 / -372 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10.5 / -10.5 → +10 / -10 ↓
39%TICKETS61%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 48.5 ↓
27%TICKETS73%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 8.7 ATS +/-: +5.3
TULN
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 8.7 ATS +/-: +5.3
TULN
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +9.8
TULN
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: -8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TULN
USA
TULN
USA
ML
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
ATS
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
TTL
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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