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ILLINOIS STATE

ILLINOIS STILST

3-0  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Huskie Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

0-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Hayden Futch
KEY GAME

Hayden Futch

#41 | Punter
@
Jake Ference
KEY GAME

Jake Ference

#36 | Punter
Player
Hayden Futch None-None
Jake Ference None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ILLINOIS ST
13%
📊
N ILLINOIS
87%
▲ Edge: +41% (NIU)
ILLINOIS ST 59% Book Odds: -141
N ILLINOIS 46% Book Odds: +118
Book Implied: 58.50% / 45.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.4
Projected
Book Total
48.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.4 (Over)
Over 48.0 89%
Under 48.0 11%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.5 points (Northern Illinois)
Illinois StILST (-2.5) 0 N IllinoisNIU (+2.5)
Northern Illinois Huskies (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Illinois St Cover

7.7%

N Illinois Cover

92.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NIU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)

ILST By 1-6 points

4.2%

ILST By 7-13 points

2.1%

NIU By 1-6 points

8.6%

NIU By 7-13 points

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
17.2
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Implied: 25.20
37.2
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 22.80
Simulated Score
13
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Implied: 25.20
31
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 22.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI N Illinois Loss
87% Win Prob
C
Sim N Illinois Loss
96% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI N Illinois (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
B
Sim N Illinois (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o48.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.4
A
Sim u48.0 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 ILST @ NIU 28 - 24
Aug 31, 2019 ILST @ NIU 10 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +89.7% more
Northern Illinois: 159.0 vs Illinois State: 83.8
Total Yards (L5) +22.7% more
Northern Illinois: 248.4 vs Illinois State: 202.5
First Downs (L5) +21.9% more
Northern Illinois: 14.0 vs Illinois State: 11.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Northern Illinois: 0.3 vs Illinois State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILST Score 17.2 28
NIU Score 37.2 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.0 / 11.4 20.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 159.0 / 83.8 112.0 / 101.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.43 / 0.64
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 248.4 / 202.5 308.0 / 254.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.3 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -213 / +169 → -141 / +118 ↑
94%TICKETS6%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -5 / +5 → -2.5 / +2.5 ↑
46%TICKETS54%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48 → 48
72%TICKETS28%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST
--
NIU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST
--
NIU Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
--
NIU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIU
ILST
NIU
ILST
ML
75% 3-1
0% 0-1
75% 3-1
0% 0-1
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-1
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 1-0
25% 1-3
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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