Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Monmouth @ W Michigan MONM @ WMU

MONMOUTH

MONMOUTHMONM

1-2  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 6:30 PM ET
Waldo Stadium
View Odds Details →

WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

1-1  |  Home

49
Key Game
Luke Schabel
KEY GAME

Luke Schabel

#9 | Punter
@
Ryan Millmore
KEY GAME

Ryan Millmore

#25 | Punter
Player
Luke Schabel None-None
Ryan Millmore None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MONMOUTH
6%
📊
W MICHIGAN
94%
MONMOUTH --
W MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 (Over)
Over 54.5 59%
Under 54.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.6
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
-28.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Western Michigan)
MonmouthMONM (+28.5) 0 W MichiganWMU (-28.5)
Western Michigan Broncos (-28.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Monmouth Cover

1.7%

W Michigan Cover

98.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WMU -29.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)

MONM By 1-6 points

1.1%

MONM By 7-13 points

0.4%

WMU By 1-6 points

3.1%

WMU By 7-13 points

7.6%

AI Model Projected Score
14.2
MONMOUTH
Book Implied: 13
43.8
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 41.50
Simulated Score
22
MONMOUTH
Book Implied: 13
29
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 41.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI W Michigan Win
94% Win Prob
B
Sim W Michigan Win
75% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI W Michigan (-28.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.6
D
Sim Monmouth (+28.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 MONM @ WMU 14 - 49
Aug 31, 2019 MONM @ WMU 13 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +121.6% more
Western Michigan: 229.5 vs Monmouth: 103.6
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Western Michigan: 0.6 vs Monmouth: 0.5
Turnovers (L5) +27.0% more
Monmouth: 0.9 vs Western Michigan: 0.6
First Downs (L5) +21.8% more
Monmouth: 23.0 vs Western Michigan: 18.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MONM Score 14.2 14
WMU Score 43.8 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 23.0 24.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 229.5 / 103.6 148.0 / 158.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.55
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 334.8 / 407.8 414.0 / 431.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.9 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -4000 → -- / --
3%TICKETS97%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +27.5 / -27.5 → +28.5 / -28.5 ↑
89%TICKETS11%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 54.5 ↑
49%TICKETS51%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MONM
--
WMU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MONM
--
WMU Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MONM
--
WMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WMU
MONM
WMU
MONM
ML
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
ATS
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
TTL
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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