Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Gardner-Webb @ Liberty GWEB @ LIB

GARDNER-WEBB

GARDNER-WEBBGWEB

0-3  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 12:00 PM ET
Williams Stadium (VA)
View Odds Details →

LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

1-1  |  Home

24
Key Game
Aidan Bonde
KEY GAME

Aidan Bonde

#42 | Punter
@
Sam Crossan
KEY GAME

Sam Crossan

#49 | Place kicker
Player
Aidan Bonde None-None
Sam Crossan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GARDNER-WEBB
8%
📊
LIBERTY
92%
▲ Edge: +2.60% (GWEB)
GARDNER-WEBB 6% Book Odds: +1700
LIBERTY 98% Book Odds: -4545
Book Implied: 5.60% / 97.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.5
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 55.5 53%
Under 55.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+25.5
GARDNER-WEBB
Book Spread
+29.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Gardner-Webb)
Gardner-WebbGWEB (+29.5) 0 LibertyLIB (-29.5)
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs (+29.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gardner-Webb Cover

96.6%

Liberty Cover

3.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GWEB +25.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GWEB)

GWEB By 1-6 points

2.1%

GWEB By 7-13 points

0.8%

LIB By 1-6 points

5.0%

LIB By 7-13 points

10.8%

AI Model Projected Score
15.5
GARDNER-WEBB
Book Implied: 13
41
LIBERTY
Book Implied: 42.50
Simulated Score
19
GARDNER-WEBB
Book Implied: 13
30
LIBERTY
Book Implied: 42.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Liberty Win
92% Win Prob
B
Sim Liberty Win
86% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gardner-Webb (+29.5) Win
Proj Spread: +25.5
C
Sim Gardner-Webb (+29.5) Win
Proj Spread: +11.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.5
D
Sim u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 GWEB @ LIB 23 - 24
Oct 15, 2022 GWEB @ LIB 20 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +53.1% more
Liberty: 191.3 vs Gardner-Webb: 125.0
First Downs (L5) +26.9% more
Liberty: 21.6 vs Gardner-Webb: 17.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
Liberty: 0.4 vs Gardner-Webb: 0.2
Total Yards (L5) +9.0% more
Liberty: 397.8 vs Gardner-Webb: 365.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GWEB Score 15.5 23
LIB Score 41.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.6 / 17.0 18.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 191.3 / 125.0 193.0 / 118.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.17 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 397.8 / 365.1 379.0 / 304.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.9 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1800 / -5000 → +1700 / -4545
4%TICKETS96%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +27.5 / -27.5 → +29.5 / -29.5 ↑
68%TICKETS32%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 55.5
40%TICKETS60%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GWEB
--
LIB Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GWEB
--
LIB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GWEB
--
LIB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIB
GWEB
LIB
GWEB
ML
60% 3-2
100% 3-0
80% 4-1
100% 3-0
ATS
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
TTL
40% 2-3
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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