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BUFFALO

BUFFALOBUFF

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20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 6:00 PM ET
Pitbull Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

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33
Key Game
Oliver Hautanen
KEY GAME

Oliver Hautanen

#31 | Place kicker
@
👤
KEY GAME

Felix Visser

#43 | Punter
Player
Oliver Hautanen None-None
Felix Visser None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUFFALO
34%
📊
FIU
66%
▲ Edge: +10.10% (BUFF)
BUFFALO 24% Book Odds: +321
FIU 80% Book Odds: -398
Book Implied: 23.80% / 79.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.4
Projected
Book Total
48.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 (Over)
Over 48.0 53%
Under 48.0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
+10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Buffalo)
BuffaloBUFF (+10) 0 FIUFIU (-10)
Buffalo Bulls (+10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buffalo Cover

69.1%

FIU Cover

30.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUFF +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUFF)

BUFF By 1-6 points

12.9%

BUFF By 7-13 points

9.6%

FIU By 1-6 points

16.5%

FIU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
21.2
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 19
28.2
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Implied: 29
Simulated Score
19
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 19
33
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Implied: 29
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI FIU Win
66% Win Prob
D
Sim FIU Win
92% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Buffalo (+10) Loss
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim FIU (-10) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o48.0 Win
Proj Total: 49.4
D
Sim o48.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 BUFF @ FIU 20 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.1% more
Florida International: 141.6 vs Buffalo: 117.9
Turnovers (L5) +13.5% more
Florida International: 2.1 vs Buffalo: 1.9
First Downs (L5) +11.9% more
Florida International: 20.9 vs Buffalo: 18.7
Total Yards (L5) +9.2% more
Florida International: 388.6 vs Buffalo: 356.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUFF Score 21.2 20
FIU Score 28.2 33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.9 / 18.7 22.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 141.6 / 117.9 154.0 / 59.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.24
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 388.6 / 356.0 540.0 / 308.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 1.9 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +310 / -395 → +321 / -398
2%TICKETS98%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10.5 / -10.5 → +10 / -10 ↓
50%TICKETS50%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 48 ↓
31%TICKETS69%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUFF
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
FIU
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUFF
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
FIU Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BUFF
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
FIU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -17.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FIU
BUFF
FIU
BUFF
ML
100% 6-0
83% 5-1
100% 6-0
83% 5-1
ATS
40% 2-3-1
33% 2-4
40% 2-3-1
67% 4-2
TTL
67% 4-2
50% 3-3
67% 4-2
67% 4-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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