Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Memphis @ Boise St MEM @ BOIS

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

2-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 6:00 PM ET
Albertsons Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

1-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
Philippe Laforge
KEY GAME

Philippe Laforge

#80 | Place kicker
@
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
Player
Philippe Laforge None-None
Oscar Doyle None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MEMPHIS
44%
📊
BOISE ST
56%
▲ Edge: +18.30% (MEM)
MEMPHIS 26% Book Odds: +284
BOISE ST 78% Book Odds: -345
Book Implied: 26% / 77.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.5
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.0 (Under)
Over 55.5 41%
Under 55.5 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.5
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
+9
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 points (Memphis)
MemphisMEM (+9) 0 Boise StBOIS (-9)
Memphis Tigers (+9) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Memphis Cover

57.1%

Boise St Cover

42.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MEM +2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-6 points

15.5%

MEM By 7-13 points

13.4%

BOIS By 1-6 points

16.9%

BOIS By 7-13 points

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
24.5
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 23.20
27
BOISE STATE
Book Implied: 32.20
Simulated Score
27
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 23.20
32
BOISE STATE
Book Implied: 32.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boise St Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Boise St Win
68% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Memphis (+9) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.5
C
Sim Memphis (+9) Loss
Proj Spread: +5.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u55.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.5
C
Sim o55.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 MEM @ BOIS 20 - 38
Sep 30, 2023 BOIS @ MEM 32 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +40.7% more
Memphis: 211.0 vs Boise State: 125.2
Total Yards (L5) +13.6% more
Memphis: 412.0 vs Boise State: 356.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 24.5 20
BOIS Score 27.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 21.4 28.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 125.2 / 211.0 357.0 / 135.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.12
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.67 / 0.33
Total Yards 356.0 / 412.0 578.0 / 519.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +274 / -355 → +284 / -345
3%TICKETS97%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9 / -9 → +9 / -9
50%TICKETS50%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 55.5
19%TICKETS81%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
BOIS
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
BOIS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
BOIS
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
MEM
BOIS
MEM
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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