Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Delaware @ Vanderbilt DEL @ VAN

DELAWARE

DELAWAREDEL

1-1  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 4:15 PM ET
FirstBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

2-0  |  Home

35
Key Game
Josh Cupitt
KEY GAME

Josh Cupitt

#39 | Punter
@
Tyler Ebel
KEY GAME

Tyler Ebel

#37 | Punter
Player
Josh Cupitt None-None
Tyler Ebel None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DELAWARE
6%
📊
VANDERBILT
94%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (VAN)
DELAWARE 10% Book Odds: +886
VANDERBILT 94% Book Odds: -1431
Book Implied: 10.10% / 93.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 54.5 65%
Under 54.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
-21
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Vanderbilt)
DelawareDEL (+21) 0 VanderbiltVAN (-21)
Vanderbilt Commodores (-21) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Delaware Cover

1.9%

Vanderbilt Cover

98.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around VAN -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

DEL By 1-6 points

1.2%

DEL By 7-13 points

0.4%

VAN By 1-6 points

3.3%

VAN By 7-13 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
16
DELAWARE
Book Implied: 16.80
45
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 37.80
Simulated Score
24
DELAWARE
Book Implied: 16.80
41
VANDERBILT
Book Implied: 37.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Vanderbilt Win
94% Win Prob
B
Sim Vanderbilt Win
95% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Vanderbilt (-21) Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
C
Sim Delaware (+21) Win
Proj Spread: +17.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
B
Sim o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 DEL @ VAN 26 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.0% more
Vanderbilt: 186.2 vs Delaware: 129.2
Turnovers (L5) +46.8% more
Delaware: 1.1 vs Vanderbilt: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEL Score 16.0 26
VAN Score 45.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.5 / 22.2 17.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 186.2 / 129.2 100.0 / 98.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 468.5 / 445.7 339.0 / 338.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +814 / -1544 → +886 / -1431
1%TICKETS99%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +21 / -21 → +21 / -21
54%TICKETS46%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 54.5 ↑
22%TICKETS78%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEL
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +6.2
VAN Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.7 ATS +/-: -6.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEL Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +6.2
VAN
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 10.7 ATS +/-: -6.7
⚖️ Over/Under
DEL
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -7.2
VAN
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
DEL
VAN
DEL
ML
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
ATS
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
TTL
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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