Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Alabama St @ Troy ALST @ TROY

ALABAMA STATE

ALABAMA STALST

2-1  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 4:00 PM ET
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
View Odds Details →

TROY

TROYTROY

2-0  |  Home

34
Key Game
Trevor Bywater
KEY GAME

Trevor Bywater

#26 | Punter
@
Ethan Head
KEY GAME

Ethan Head

#33 | Place kicker
Player
Trevor Bywater None-None
Ethan Head None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ALABAMA ST
6%
📊
TROY
94%
ALABAMA ST 9% Book Odds: +966
TROY 96% Book Odds: -2287
Book Implied: 9.40% / 95.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 51.5 64%
Under 51.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.4
TROY
Book Spread
-23.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.9 points (Troy)
Alabama StALST (+23.5) 0 TroyTROY (-23.5)
Troy Trojans (-23.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Alabama St Cover

2.1%

Troy Cover

97.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TROY -28.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)

ALST By 1-6 points

1.3%

ALST By 7-13 points

0.5%

TROY By 1-6 points

3.6%

TROY By 7-13 points

8.5%

AI Model Projected Score
14.8
ALABAMA STATE
Book Implied: 14
43.2
TROY
Book Implied: 37.50
Simulated Score
18
ALABAMA STATE
Book Implied: 14
30
TROY
Book Implied: 37.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Troy Win
94% Win Prob
B
Sim Troy Win
88% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Troy (-23.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.4
C
Sim Alabama St (+23.5) Win
Proj Spread: +12.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Sim u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 ALST @ TROY 17 - 34
Sep 9, 2017 ALST @ TROY 7 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +47.5% more
Alabama State: 1.8 vs Troy: 1.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Alabama State: 0.5 vs Troy: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.0% more
Alabama State: 123.5 vs Troy: 101.2
Total Yards (L5) +16.5% more
Alabama State: 348.3 vs Troy: 291.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALST Score 14.8 17
TROY Score 43.2 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.4 / 18.7 19.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 101.2 / 123.5 226.0 / 116.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.21 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 291.0 / 348.3 427.0 / 221.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.8 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +860 / -2130 → +966 / -2287
2%TICKETS98%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +22.5 / -22.5 → +23.5 / -23.5 ↑
55%TICKETS45%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 51.5
13%TICKETS87%
15%MONEY85%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
--
TROY Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
--
TROY Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
--
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
ALST
TROY
ALST
ML
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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