Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / N Colorado @ Wyoming UNCO @ WYO

NORTHERN COLORADO

N COLORADOUNCO

0-3  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 4:00 PM ET
War Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

WYOMING

WYOMINGWYO

1-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Landon Richardson

#23 | Place kicker
@
Bart Edmiston
KEY GAME

Bart Edmiston

#18 | Punter
Player
Landon Richardson None-None
Bart Edmiston None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N COLORADO
9%
📊
WYOMING
91%
N COLORADO 10% Book Odds: +898
WYOMING 95% Book Odds: -2023
Book Implied: 10% / 95.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +11.5 (Over)
Over 44.5 76%
Under 44.5 24%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.4
WYOMING
Book Spread
-22.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Wyoming)
N ColoradoUNCO (+22.5) 0 WyomingWYO (-22.5)
Wyoming Cowboys (-22.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Colorado Cover

4.1%

Wyoming Cover

95.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WYO -24.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WYO)

UNCO By 1-6 points

2.4%

UNCO By 7-13 points

1.0%

WYO By 1-6 points

5.7%

WYO By 7-13 points

11.8%

AI Model Projected Score
15.8
NORTHERN COLORADO
Book Implied: 11
40.2
WYOMING
Book Implied: 33.50
Simulated Score
18
NORTHERN COLORADO
Book Implied: 11
24
WYOMING
Book Implied: 33.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wyoming Win
91% Win Prob
B
Sim Wyoming Win
72% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wyoming (-22.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.4
D
Sim N Colorado (+22.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
A
Sim u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 42.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 UNCO @ WYO 13 - 21
Sep 10, 2022 UNCO @ WYO 10 - 33
Sep 14, 2013 UNCO @ WYO 7 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +54.4% more
Wyoming: 2.1 vs Northern Colorado: 1.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.8% more
Wyoming: 108.8 vs Northern Colorado: 88.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Northern Colorado: 0.3 vs Wyoming: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCO Score 15.8 13
WYO Score 40.2 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.6 / 15.5 16.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 108.8 / 88.6 155.0 / 139.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.3 0.42 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 260.5 / 269.5 304.0 / 345.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 1.4 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +860 / -2129 → +898 / -2023
2%TICKETS98%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +22.5 / -22.5 → +22.5 / -22.5
91%TICKETS9%
95%MONEY5%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 44.5 ↓
34%TICKETS66%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCO
--
WYO Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCO
--
WYO Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.8 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCO
--
WYO
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WYO
UNCO
WYO
UNCO
ML
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
ATS
20% 1-4
0% 0-2
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
TTL
0% 0-5
0% 0-2
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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