Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UNLV @ North Texas UNLV @ UNT

UNLV

UNLVUNLV

1-2  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:45 PM ET
DATCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

1-1  |  Home

44
Key Game
Matt Choules
KEY GAME

Matt Choules

#26 | Punter
@
Ian Ratliff
KEY GAME

Ian Ratliff

#37 | Punter
Player
Matt Choules None-None
Ian Ratliff None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UNLV
25%
📊
NORTH TEXAS
75%
▲ Edge: +32.20% (UNT)
UNLV 61% Book Odds: -153
NORTH TEXAS 43% Book Odds: +135
Book Implied: 60.50% / 42.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
58.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.0 (Under)
Over 58.0 38%
Under 58.0 62%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.6
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.6 points (North Texas)
UNLVUNLV (-3) 0 North TexasUNT (+3)
North Texas Mean Green (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UNLV Cover

20.4%

North Texas Cover

79.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNT -11.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

UNLV By 1-6 points

9.6%

UNLV By 7-13 points

6.2%

UNT By 1-6 points

14.4%

UNT By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
20.2
UNLV
Book Implied: 30.50
31.8
NORTH TEXAS
Book Implied: 27.50
Simulated Score
34
UNLV
Book Implied: 30.50
33
NORTH TEXAS
Book Implied: 27.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI North Texas Win
75% Win Prob
C
Sim UNLV Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI North Texas (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -11.6
B
Sim North Texas (+3) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u58.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Sim o58.0 Loss
Proj Total: 67.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 UNLV @ UNT 6 - 44
Sep 17, 2022 UNT @ UNLV 27 - 58
Jan 1, 2014 UNLV @ UNT 14 - 36
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +77.5% more
North Texas: 1.8 vs UNLV: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +27.1% more
North Texas: 491.5 vs UNLV: 386.6
First Downs (L5) +14.2% more
North Texas: 23.8 vs UNLV: 20.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.4% more
North Texas: 210.5 vs UNLV: 194.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 20.2 6
UNT Score 31.8 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.8 / 20.8 22.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 210.5 / 194.1 183.0 / 98.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 491.5 / 386.6 444.0 / 301.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.0 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -208 / +173 → -153 / +135 ↑
94%TICKETS6%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -5 / +5 → -3 / +3 ↑
63%TICKETS37%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57 → 58 ↑
12%TICKETS88%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -9.7 ATS +/-: -13.0
UNT
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -4.0 ATS +/-: +11.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -9.7 ATS +/-: -13.0
UNT Advantage
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -4.0 ATS +/-: +11.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
0-3-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -14.8
UNT
2-1-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +7.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
UNLV
UNT
UNLV
ML
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
TTL
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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