Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / C Connecticut @ Toledo CCSU @ TOL

CENTRAL CONNECTICUT

C CONNECTICUTCCSU

0-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:30 PM ET
Glass Bowl
View Odds Details →

TOLEDO

TOLEDOTOL

1-1  |  Home

63
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Sammy Johnson

#95 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Markus Meincke

#47 | Punter
Player
Sammy Johnson None-None
Markus Meincke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
C CONNECTICUT
4%
📊
TOLEDO
96%
▲ Edge: +1.30% (CCSU)
C CONNECTICUT 3% Book Odds: +3500
TOLEDO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.6
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.1 (Over)
Over 52.5 69%
Under 52.5 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+33.0
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Book Spread
+36.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Central Connecticut)
C ConnecticutCCSU (+36.5) 0 ToledoTOL (-36.5)
Central Connecticut Blue Devils (+36.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

C Connecticut Cover

99.1%

Toledo Cover

0.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CCSU +33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CCSU)

CCSU By 1-6 points

0.6%

CCSU By 7-13 points

0.2%

TOL By 1-6 points

1.9%

TOL By 7-13 points

5.3%

AI Model Projected Score
13.8
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Book Implied: 8
46.8
TOLEDO
Book Implied: 44.50
Simulated Score
11
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Book Implied: 8
42
TOLEDO
Book Implied: 44.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Toledo Win
96% Win Prob
A
Sim Toledo Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI C Connecticut (+36.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +33.0
C
Sim C Connecticut (+36.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +31.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.6
B
Sim o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 CCSU @ TOL 10 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +41.0% more
Toledo: 1.2 vs Central Connecticut: 0.8
Total Yards (L5) +40.2% more
Toledo: 343.2 vs Central Connecticut: 244.8
First Downs (L5) +28.5% more
Toledo: 16.2 vs Central Connecticut: 12.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.9% more
Toledo: 140.2 vs Central Connecticut: 116.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CCSU Score 13.8 10
TOL Score 46.8 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.2 / 12.6 28.0 / 7.0
Rushing Yards 140.2 / 116.9 256.0 / 73.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.62 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 343.2 / 244.8 569.0 / 139.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: 0 / 0 → +3500 / --
2%TICKETS98%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +33.5 / -33.5 → +36.5 / -36.5 ↑
92%TICKETS8%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 52.5 ↓
42%TICKETS58%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CCSU
--
TOL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CCSU
--
TOL Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +6.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CCSU
--
TOL
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +17.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOL
CCSU
TOL
CCSU
ML
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
ATS
25% 1-3-1
0% 0-2
50% 2-2-1
0% 0-2
TTL
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Texas AD Chris Del Conte Slams Longhorns' Vulgar Celebrations as…
cenlanow 1 week, 1 day ago
Duke Blue Devils: Undefeated but Overlooked in AP Top 25?
si 1 week, 2 days ago
Duke Blue Devils' Road Win Over Illinois: Position-by-Position G…
si 3 weeks, 3 days ago
Michigan QB Bryce Underwood Accused of 'Seeing Ghosts' by Anonym…
bleacherreport 3 weeks, 5 days ago
Michigan State Navigates Injury Concerns and Fresh Talent Ahead …
headtopics 1 month ago